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International attempts to broker a ceasefire to end the Sudan conflict will continue to see only temporary success at best, with both sides likely to keep fighting for the next six months, while further collaboration between tribal entities and the two main conflict parties could see cross-border tribal conflicts ignite. This document provides background information on the conflict parties involved in the Sudan fighting and violence attributed to them.
Summary
• The main fighting in Sudan has been in Khartoum state, which has seen over 60% of all reported violent incidents, while the Darfur region and North Kordofan state have also seen extensive clashes.
• Tribal and ethno-religious loyalties are fuelling recruitment and support for both sides, and this is only likely to increase if – as seems likely – the conflict continues. This in turn risks sparking a more general tribal/ethnic conflict, particularly in the Darfur region.
• The conflict between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan Armed Forces, which started on 15 April, could see cross-border tribal conflict reignite, especially because the two main advocates who had previously moderated tribal clashes are now fighting each other.