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Sudan Situation Report Analysis: Conflict Developments and their Implications for Aid Agencies, July 2023

Attachments

The Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan had a limited focus on humanitarian issues, while subsequent ceasefires had practically no effect on the fighting. Any spillover effects of the Sudanese conflict on neighbouring countries may affect aid operations regionally. Attempts to influence the conflict through sanctions are highly likely to affect aid operations.

Summary

  • Fighting will remain largely within urban areas, despite a likely increase in the ongoing conflict, with Khartoum, West, South and North Darfur, the Kordofan states and parts of Blue Nile seeing the heaviest fighting. Neither side is likely to gain a significant advantage in the next six months.

  • Tribal and ethno-religious loyalties are already fuelling recruitment and support for both sides and this is only likely to increase if – as seems likely – the conflict continues. This in turn risks sparking a more general tribal/ethnic conflict, particularly in Darfur, with complex implications for aid agency recruitment and collaboration with local partners.

  • The conflict could see spillover effects on neighbouring countries such as Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan, with the influx of refugees escaping violence in Sudan likely adding additional pressures on their resources and stability. The situation in Libya poses further risks, because the country serves as an optimal rear base for the combtants in Sudan, due to its role as a black-market logistics hub, while South Sudan could see economic repercussions, particularly if the RSF targets the country’s oil infrastructure.

  • The international community’s will to address Sudan’s humanitarian and security issues has been insufficient thus far, but global attention will continue to be crucial to prevent the conflict from escalating into a regional war. Therefore, longer-term sustained pressure from the international community, including the Quad (United States, UK, Saudi Arabia and UAE), is key.

  • Further sanctions intended to force conflict parties to the negotiation table may affect aid operations. Measures to address the lawlessness, organised crime and international terrorism that is increasingly prevalent in Sudan may also further complicate aid operations.

  • Conflict parties in Sudan and some foreign powers may not perceive aid agencies as neutral, impartial, and independent, and may attempt to undermine their humanitarian intentions.

  • A possible destabilsation of the oil market may significantly affect fuel and food prices, with implications for aid operations.