Attachments
INTRODUCTION
The scenarios consider four different yet plausible futures for Sudan until October 2024, including their possible impacts and humanitarian consequences. Each scenario considers the differences in three main variables: conflict, governance, and socioeconomic conditions. Scenarios identify the potential change in people’s ability to meet their needs.
Scenarios are not forecasts but describe situations that could occur and illustrate a range of futures. They are based on a clear understanding of the current situation and the factors that have led to it. It is advisable for readers unfamiliar with the Sudanese context to read Annex A, which summarises the current situation, before exploring the scenarios. Annex B is a table of events that may lead to the scenarios materialising.
Intended purpose and audience of the report
The report primarily aims to support strategic planning, promote anticipatory action, create awareness, and encourage discussion among humanitarian policymakers, practitioners, and donors through an understanding of the possible ways humanitarian needs may develop and be met or not – whether intentionally or unintentionally. Users are suggested to consider how each scenario might influence their engagement in Sudan and identify preparatory actions to improve or reduce any humanitarian service delivery disruptions resulting from each scenario.
Problem statement
Since independence in 1956, Sudan has been grappling with conflict. It is one of the largest countries in Africa, and its population is diverse, with more than 500 ethnic groups speaking more than 400 languages. Historically, the country has been governed from the centre, with military dictatorships ruling through oppression from the capital, Khartoum. A transitional government – formed to steer the country to democratic elections after the ousting of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir in April 2019 – collapsed following a military coup in October 2021. Civilian resistance to military rule persisted through 2022, driven by a widespread distrust of the military and rejection of power-sharing by civilian movements. In April 2023, a power struggle broke out in Khartoum between the two main factions of the ruling military regime: the RSF, a paramilitary unit, and the SAF.
Since April 2023, fighting has been fierce and persistent, prompting many Sudanese to flee the country. Many businesses have closed, the formal banking system has collapsed and led to a cash shortage, and the payment of non-military government salaries has ceased. Sudan’s fragile economy – already struggling before the recent conflict with a large budget deficit and suspended international funding – has been driving inflation (over 200% as at August 2023 compared to same period in 2022) and high humanitarian needs. The conflict has resulted in much structural damage to Khartoum, and many government services across the country, including schools and hospitals, are no longer functioning. At the same time, the conflict in West Darfur has increased, leading almost 500,000 Sudanese to flee to Chad since April 2023. The conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile simmer, discontent in the east is on the rise, and neighbouring countries are in various states of crisis and fragility.