Sudan: Key Message Update, September 2017
Main rainy season performs well, but dryness and flooding likely to lead to crop losses in some areas
- Assistance needs remain most urgent in parts of Jebel Marra and SPLM-N-controlled South Kordofan, which will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through September. In much of Sudan, harvests starting in October will maintain or improve acute food insecurity to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels between October 2017 and January 2018. New IDPs in Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and refugees from South Sudan will likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as continued displacement limits their access to land for cultivation and to seasonal agricultural labor opportunities.
- Cumulative main season rainfall between June and August 2017 was average tending to above average over most parts of Sudan, according to CHIRPS rainfall estimates. Field reports indicate dry spells occurred during June and July in some high-producing areas, with significant rainfall in August helping to improve conditions, but also causing severe flooding, water logging of crops, and damage to property. NDVI suggests vegetation conditions remain much poorer than normal in Kassala, northern Gadaref, and parts of North Darfur states.
- Overall, FEWS NET expects main season harvests in Sudan to be average with pockets of below-average harvests. Above normal rainfall has continued in September and supported crop development, even among crops planted late due to early season dry spells and flooding. Areas where crop production and regeneration of pasture are likely to be below average include parts of Kassala, northern Gadaref, North Darfur, and North Kordofan states.