Attachments
Key Messages
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The ongoing conflict in Sudan continues to drive atypically high humanitarian needs during the peak of the lean season in September. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist, particularly in Khartoum and in areas of Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, White Nile, and Blue Nile with large urban centers that have been affected by direct fighting. Of highest concern are urban populations in El Geneina, Nyala, and Kadugli due to the impacts of intensive fighting, with some households in El Geneina likely facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) given the severity of fighting that has significantly disrupted household mobility and delivery of assistance since mid-April. Additionally, urban populations in Khartoum remain of high concern given the continued severe disruption to food and income access contributing to a high number of households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Assistance needs will remain high through the post- harvest season due to the ongoing disruption to livelihoods in areas of continued conflict, atypically high prices, and the anticipated below-average harvest.
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As of the end of September, the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued unabated with heavy clashes in Omdurman, Bahri, South Khartoum, and downtown Khartoum; in the major urban centers of Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan, including Nyala in South Darfur, El Fasher in North Darfur, and El Obeid in North Kordofan; and some expansion into rural areas in parts of Al Jazirah, North Kordofan, and South Darfur states. Clashes have also continued between SAF and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/North-Al Hilu (SPLM-N/ AH) in and around Kadugli, Dilling, and in Abu Kershola locality, South Kordofan. Increased tension and a brief exchange of gunfire were also reported between SAF and the Alliance of Eastern Sudan Parties and Movements in Port Sudan of Red Sea state for the first time since the start of the conflict in April. While the fighting has dissipated and the east remains relatively less affected by direct clashes, the incident was indicative of the simmering tensions that could erupt into greater violence. In El Geneina of West Darfur and Zalingei of Central Darfur, both towns that have experienced severe violence and ethnically-based killings in the past four months, violent events have declined over the past two months, but the situation remains tense and unpredictable. sd-kmu-2023-10
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The fighting continues to be characterized by large-scale looting; burning of markets, vehicles, and houses; and the occupation and destruction of public institutions and private residences. This has contributed to the near-collapse of health, education, transportation, and banking systems in conflict-affected areas. The most severe impacts on household livelihoods and acute food insecurity continue to be in main urban areas experiencing heavy fighting, which is significantly limiting population mobility and access to primary livelihood options, in addition to the considerable collateral damage to services and infrastructure. In most rural areas, the impact of the conflict continues to be more indirect as insecurity along trade routes is reducing trade flows and causing prices to rise above already seasonally high levels, thereby negatively affecting household access to food at a time when reliance on market purchases is typically high. Notable exceptions include in some rural areas of West and South Darfur, where there is more direct conflict.
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As of the end of September, displacement due to the conflict surpassed five million people, or roughly one in 10 people across Sudan, with 4.2 million internally displaced within Sudan and 1.1 million fleeing to neighboring countries. The rate of displacement continues to be staggering, with about 115,000 people displaced over the third week of September alone. Most of the internally displaced people continue to come from Khartoum, representing more than 69 percent of the total displaced since the start of the conflict, The highest caseloads of IDPs have been reported residing in River Nile, South Darfur, East Darfur, Northern, Sennar, North Darfur, and White Nile states. As most of the newly displaced people are staying with host communities (67 percent) or in rented accommodations (10 percent) in urban areas, the pressure on available food and income resources is increasing, particularly as many households have no stocks and are awaiting the arrival of the green harvest from the ongoing agricultural season.
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As of the third week of September, the progress of the rainy season varies widely across the country. Rainfall deficits and irregular rainfall distribution alongside persistently above-average temperatures were reported in much of the typically highly productive areas of the southeast. By contrast, heavy rains and flash floods were reported in some localities in Northern, River Nile, South Darfur, White Nile, and South Kordofan states. These rainfall and climatological anomalies are negatively impacting the progress of the agricultural season, aggravating the direct and indirect impacts of conflict on cultivation and crops performance. This is likely to compromise the expected yield of the upcoming November 2023 to January 2024 harvest.
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Staple foods prices indicated mixed trends across main markets in Sudan during the third week of September, the peak lean season, due to the continued disruption to flows and supplies. Price increases of 10-20 percent were seen in the main markets across Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan, as well as in Dongola market in Northern state, as a result of tightened market supplies and increased marketing and transportation costs. By contrast, sorghum and millet prices in the markets of Ed Damazin, Sennar, and Gedaref in the main producing areas of central and eastern Sudan showed an unseasonal decline of around 10 percent driven by the continued disruptions to trade flow along key corridors, particularly from east to west, and in market functionality in conflict-affected areas. On average, the retail price of sorghum in September was 6 percent higher than in September 2022, while millet price is 16 percent lower compared to September 2022 prices due to the relatively better carryover stock from last year’s above-average harvest. Locally produced wheat prices sd-kmu-2023-10 recorded the highest price increase of 29 percent compared to September 2022, due to the high demand and reduced supplies from March 2023 harvest. Overall, cereal prices remain significantly above their five-year average – 252, 259, and 175 percent higher for sorghum, wheat, and millet, respectively – driven by high production and transportation costs, high inflation, and persistent local currency depreciation. While some improvement is expected with the arrival of the upcoming harvests by November 2023, prices are nonetheless expected to remain higher than normal for a post-harvest period, given the anticipated below-average harvest and continued conflict-driven trade and market disruptions.
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Amidst the continued crisis, humanitarian assistance remains limited and exceedingly challenging, given insecurity and looting. According to UNOCHA Situation Report, the UN and partners have delivered 5,061 metric tons (MT) (127 trucks) of food supplies to White Nile, Kassala, Gedaref, and West Darfur states, with food crossing the Chad-Sudan border in early to mid-September. However, assistance remains severely limited by access constraints, including insecurity and targeting of humanitarian actors, which has led to continuing delays, disruptions, and cancellations of deliveries. In addition to food assistance, humanitarian agencies are working to deliver water, sanitation, medical, and health supplies amid the near collapse of the health system and rising disease incidence. Notably, the number of reported cases of measles has surpassed 4,000 since April, contributing to rising child mortality exacerbated by worsening acute malnutrition.