Sudan

Sudan: JAM Final Report Volume I - Synthesis

Attachments


Framework for Sustained Peace, Development and Poverty Eradication

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. The signing of the historic Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005 has opened an unprecedented window of opportunity to turn the devastation of years of war, displacement, and underdevelopment into a new era of peace and prosperity. Sudan's vast natural resource endowments and significant human capital offer enormous development potential. Now is the time to consolidate and broaden the partnership that has formed between the parties to the CPA, civil society, and the international community, in order to realize the vision of a unified Sudan that responds to the needs of its diverse people.

2. The Joint Assessment Mission (JAM) has led to a Framework for Sustained Peace, Development and Poverty Eradication, which will be supported by domestic efforts and resources, as well as development partners, in addressing underlying structural causes of conflict and underdevelopment in the Sudan. The process underpinning the Sudan JAM has in many ways been unique among post-conflict assessments, being characterized by strong ownership developed over the twelve months of engagement, and undertaken with extensive donor and civil society participation. The Framework focuses on key themes that are integral to consolidating the peace and facilitating broad-based human and economic development. Providing basic security and human rights protections, and ensuring the safe return and reintegration of the world's largest displaced population, will be fundamental preconditions to rebuilding social capital and putting the country on a solid footing for development. In parallel, implementation of the CPA requires sweeping reforms to governance, the creation of new institutions, and significant capacity building at all levels of government to allow for effective decentralization and equitable resource allocation. These will be important elements of a long-term resolution to the existing conflict in Darfur and simmering or potential conflicts in other parts of the country, to enable sustainable peace in Sudan.

3. Underlying the CPA and the proposed Framework is the recognition that large parts of Sudan are isolated and underdeveloped, with very minimal access to basic services and infrastructure; this is particularly the case in the South, war-affected areas of the North, West and East, and the Three Areas of Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan, and Abyei. Indeed, wide disparities have characterized the country historically, including along regional lines, between urban and rural areas, and by gender. These disparities suggest the need for targeted efforts, though the basic needs for peace and development are clearly applicable nationwide, as outlined in a joint concept note for a Poverty Eradication Strategy (PES).

4. The National Government (NG) faces several major challenges. Chief among these is improving governance and creating the decentralized governmental system envisioned in the CPA that allows for community-driven recovery and an important role for a vibrant civil society and independent media. In turn, more equitable distribution of the national wealth and public resources will enable state and local governments to fulfil their service delivery responsibilities, and lead to better education, healthcare, and water and sanitation access in underdeveloped regions. This requires an ongoing shift in prioritization of public spending toward programmes and investments that facilitate broad-based economic growth, including via increased traditional agricultural and livestock productivity along with support for private sector development. The NG has additional responsibilities related to guaranteeing the special status of, and enabling development in, the Three Areas. These goals will be pursued while maintaining macro-economic stability.

5. The Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) has adopted a vision for equitable development and poverty eradication, but will start from a much lower level in terms of institutional capacity and socio-economic development. Key education and health indicators, such as child and maternal mortality and primary enrolment, are among the worst in the world. Infrastructure is virtually nonexistent, with no paved roads outside the main urban centres, and a civil service and service delivery structures for service delivery must be created essentially from scratch. Millions of IDPs are expected to return to the South, compounding the challenges. The strategy is to promote rural development through a big push on basic infrastructure to support intraregional, North-South, and international trade linkages, and based around market towns, services to promote the productivity of agriculture, and expanded access to basic social services, especially education. Through the CPA the GOSS will have access to substantial domestically-generated revenue, but additional resources will be needed to enable the realization of development objectives.

6. Several additional cross-cutting issues will be addressed throughout Sudan through a combination of policy and programmatic interventions. First, women shoulder enormous work burdens, and suffer from discrimination in economic and public spheres of life. Measures are included to promote the position of women including in education, governance and access to income earning opportunities -- not only to meet the letter of the goals for poverty eradication and human development, but also to realize the spirit of the CPA, which is of a just society with access to opportunity for all. Second, actions to address environmental degradation and desertification have been integrated into programmes for economic recovery and capacity building. Third, the risk of worsening HIV/AIDS is being offset by the expansion of programmes to increase awareness and access to services. Finally, but not least, a conflict prevention lens has been integrated into the design of policies and programmes at all levels.

7. In the face of the enormity of needs in the wake of Africa's longest-running civil war, and the imperative of capitalizing on the momentum created by the CPA, the challenge facing the JAM was to jointly identify and prioritize key objectives that would make a tangible difference in the short term and provide the foundation for broad based prosperity. The technical and financial analysis revealed substantial external financing needs. This should be frontloaded to ensure a tangible peace dividend that consolidates the gains made by the parties to the CPA. The fiscal adjustments implied at the outset create substantial financing needs in the North, but these should steadily decrease as domestic pro-poor efforts intensify and the economy continues to expand. The strong domestic reallocation effort towards pro-poor spending should create the conditions necessary to attract in the future additional external support not costed in the JAM: for demobilisation, reconstruction of Darfur, and debt reduction. In the South, initial efforts are directed at rapidly building capacity and meeting basic needs as quickly as possible, and the need for external assistance remains significant through the end of the Interim Period, alongside substantial own financing.


Estimated JAM Needs and External Financing Gaps, Phase I (US $ billions)
Total JAM needs
Financing gap
Northern Sudan
4.3
1.2
of which Three Areas
0.7
Southern Sudan
3.6
1.4
Total
7.9
2.6
Notes: For 2005, July-December only.

8. Certain significant financing costs needed to realize the peace are not included in the JAM analysis. These include the costs of mounting a large UN peace support mission; continued humanitarian relief; fully-fledged DDR programmes; and funds for arrears clearance and debt relief. The full costs of the infrastructure programme need to be assessed in light of detailed technical analysis. It is intended that as part of the framework for development assistance in the Sudan, with reporting on progress and updating on needs, that further assistance will be requested and forthcoming.

9. Looking ahead, the Poverty Eradication Strategy will be a critical underpinning to the further development of policies and programmes. Moreover, as Sudan scales up services and supports broad-based growth in its efforts to consolidate peace and achieve the Millennium Development Goals, monitoring and evaluation will be critical. The parties have committed to a monitoring framework for regular and transparent reporting on progress over time. More and better data, as well as qualitative information, are needed to track trends, monitor security issues and anti-corruption efforts, and highlight the need for any mid-course corrections. These mechanisms are needed to underpin governmental accountability and strengthen the partnership for Sudan's peaceful development.

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Volume II - Cluster Costings and Matrices

Volume III - Cluster Reports