ReliefWeb

Introduction

Beginning in the aftermath of state and national elections in April 2010, South Sudan has faced an eruption of armed insurgencies, the majority of them led by former Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) commanders in the Greater Upper Nile region. The conflicts sparked by these insurgent commanders, and SPLA countermeasures, have directly or indirectly caused the deaths of thousands of South Sudanese, provoked mass displacement of communities in Greater Upper Nile, and challenged the government’s ability to secure this strategic and volatile region.

In a number of cases, the rebellions are closely connected to state and national politics and governance challenges, and the often-contradictory responses to them have exposed deep rifts both within and between the SPLA and the government. At a time when the Republic of South Sudan faces multiple other threats along its border with Sudan, its authorities have made some short-term gains in countering the insurgencies, but have ultimately failed to contain the rebel threat. This current stalemate leaves the new country vulnerable and unstable.

This Issue Brief reviews the roots of the armed insurgencies led by George Athor, Peter Gadet, and other Southern commanders—all of whom have claimed to seek systemic changes to the Juba-based government or to overthrow it. It assesses the current approach of the SPLA and the government of the Republic of South Sudan (RoSS) to containing them, concluding that it is both ad hoc and unsustainable. Furthermore, the response fails to address the grievances of the communities that joined the insurgent leaders in taking up arms against the government and the army.
Key findings include:

As of late October 2011 the major insurgents in Greater Upper Nile have not made significant headway in achieving their purported political objectives. Commanders formerly loyal to Peter Gadet, as well as two Shilluk commanders, continue to pose active military threats.