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Rapid deterioration leaves 25.6M people in high levels of acute food insecurity, 755,000 people in catastrophic conditions, 14 areas at risk of Famine
Overview
Fourteen months into the conflict, Sudan is facing the worst levels of acute food insecurity ever recorded by the IPC in the country. Over half of the population (25.6M people) face Crisis or worse conditions (IPC Phase 3 or above) between June and September 2024, coinciding with the lean season. This includes 755,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in 10 states including Greater Darfur (all five states), South and North Kordofan, Blue Nile, Al Jazirah, and Khartoum. Another 8.5M people (18 percent of the population) face Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
There is a risk of Famine in 14 areas (five localities and nine clusters of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees, in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Al Jazirah states and some hotspots in Khartoum), if the conflict escalates further, including through increased mobilization of local militias. This would contribute to the ongoing restrictions on humanitarian access to the besieged population in critical areas and restrict people’s ability to engage in farming and casual labour activities during the upcoming agricultural season.
This latest IPC analysis marks a stark and rapid deterioration of the food security situation compared to the previous IPC update published in December 2023. Six months later, the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity has increased by 45 percent (from 17.7M to 25.6M), including a 74 percent increase (+3.6M) in IPC Phase 4, while the population in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) has surged from zero to 755,000 in the period June - September 2024. Compared to the same time last year (June 2023), the number of people classified in IPC Phase 3 or above has increased by over 50 percent (+8.7M).
While in the harvest season (October 2024 – February 2025), the conditions of some households are expected to slightly improve due to food availability from local production and partial stabilization of food prices, a very high number of people (21.1M) are expected to continue facing high acute food insecurity, with around 6.4M in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and nearly 109,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). During this period, seven areas are expected to face a risk of Famine.
The conflict has not only triggered mass displacement and disruption of supply routes, market systems and agricultural production, it has also severely limited access to essential humanitarian assistance, exacerbating an already dire situation. The impact of conflict extends beyond food insecurity. Reports from various states highlight highly dysfunctional health services, water contamination and poor sanitation and hygiene conditions. Increased morbidity to water-borne diseases is expected to further reduce the absorption capacity of the little food available for children and adults. Consequently, cases of acute malnutrition, which have already reached extremely high levels in some areas will likely increase. Moreover, the fast-approaching rainy season and expected floods will likely affect the agricultural season through the spread of pests and plant diseases.
The situation is especially critical for populations trapped into areas affected by direct conflict, insecurity and lack of protection, particularly in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Khartoum and Al Jazirah states. IDPs and refugees, many of whom rely on humanitarian assistance, are a major cause for concern. Between June and September, at least 534,000 IDPs and refugees in conflictaffected localities and states for which data were available (representing around 20 percent of the displaced population in Sudan) will likely experience critical or catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4 or 5). In areas where humanitarian assistance has been heavily restricted, informal safety nets, remittances and local response systems have largely contributed to preventing further deterioration of the food security conditions. The sustainability of these mechanisms remains unclear, particularly in conflictaffected areas where food stocks are about to deplete and supplies are not flowing in.