Attachments
IPC Global Initiative - Special Brief - Sudan
Overview
For the second time in less than a year, the IPC Famine Review Committee (FRC) has confirmed that Famine is occurring in parts of Sudan. As of September 2025, El Fasher town (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified in Famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions are expected to persist through January 2026. Conditions in the besieged town of Dilling (South Kordofan) are estimated to be similar to those in Kadugli town; however, the lack of data prevents IPC classification of this area. Famine is characterised by a total collapse of livelihoods, starvation, extremely high levels of malnutrition, and death.
These catastrophic food security outcomes are mirrored in the nutrition situation. Over 60 percent of localities covered by SMART surveys between January and July 2025 show Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates above 15 percent, with four in Greater Darfur showing prevalence around or above the 30 percent Famine threshold.
Newly displaced populations from El Fasher—particularly children—are arriving in neighbouring areas such as Tawila in acutely malnourished condition, reflecting prolonged deprivation before and during the transit. The sharp rise in severe acute maluntrition nationally, including more than 56,000 Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) admissions in September alone, underscores the depth of the crisis and the strain on already overstretched nutrition services.
Uncertainty surrounding the evolution of conflict heightens the risk of Famine, particularly in 20 areas expected to receive displaced populations across North, South, and East Darfur, as well as West and South Kordofan. Since 26 October, the change in control of El Fasher town has resulted in widespread human suffering and further displacement towards Tawila and other neighboring areas, exacerbating humanitarian needs in and around El Fasher.
In September 2025, at the peak of the lean season, an estimated 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 6.3 million people (13 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 375,000 people (1 percent) in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Compared to the previous IPC analysis (December 2024 - May 2025), the number of people facing IPC Phase 3 or above declined by 3.4 million people (a 6-percentage point drop). This is largely due to gradual stabilisation, reduced conflict and improved humanitarian access in Khartoum, Al Jazirah and Sennar states since April 2025. However, these improvements remain limited as the broader crisis continues to severely impact the economy, service delivery and productive infrastructure—much of which has been damaged or destroyed by conflict.
In contrast, most statess in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan experienced a further deterioration in food security due to active conflict and restricted access. In September, a staggering 3.6 million people in these regions faced Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity and nearly 370,000 faced Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) conditions—accounting for 98 percent of the total population in this phase nationwide.
Favourable agroclimatic conditions will likely seasonally improve the food security situation after the harvest. This, together with sustained humanitarian food assistance, will result in a decline in the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above to 19.2 million people (40 percent of the population) between October 2025 and January 2026. However, in North Darfur and the Western Nuba Mountains, gains from the harvest will remain limited due to conflict and insecurity. Displaced populations across the country, as well as returnees, especially in Al Jazirah, Sennar and Khartoum, are also unlikely to benefit meaningfully from the harvest due to the loss of their productive assets. During the post-harvest and pre-lean season (February - May 2026), acute food insecurity is projected to worsen slightly as food stocks deplete, and conflict intensifies along frontlines. An estimated 19.1 million people (41 percent) are expected to face IPC Phase 3 or above conditions, including 4.9 million people (11 percent) in IPC Phase 4 and 146,000 people in IPC Phase 5. This apparent reduction in numbers, compared to the first projection, is primarily due to the inability to classify several high-concern areas—home to approximately 841,000 people—including El Fasher town (inclusive of Abu Shouk and Al Salam camps), Kadugli town, as well as Dilling, As Sunut, Al Lagowa, and Habila (South Kordofan) localities, due to the volatility of the situation and resulting uncertainty. If these populations had been included in the second projection analysis, the share of people in IPC Phase 3 or above would have risen well beyond 41 percent, resulting in a significantly larger increase in acute food insecurity compared to the first projection, particularly considering the increased number of people displaced following the change in control of El Fasher town.
Unimpeded humanitarian access to implement a large-scale, multi-sector response—with commensurate funding—is urgently needed to prevent further starvation and death.