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INTENSE CONFLICT AND ORGANIZED VIOLENCE - LEADING TO WIDESPREAD DISPLACEMENT, ECONOMIC CRISIS AND DISRUPTED FOOD PRODUCTION - WORSENS ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY DURING TYPICAL HARVEST PERIOD
Overview
The latest projection update of Sudan reveals that intense conflict and organized violence, coupled with the continued economic decline, have driven approximately 17.7 million people across Sudan (37 percent of the analysed population) into high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between October 2023 and February 2024. Of those, about 4.9 million (10 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and almost 12.8 million people (27 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
An update of the October 2023 – February 2024 projection period was carried out in October 2023 to allow for the revision of classifications of several states as the monitoring of key drivers and assumptions of the last projection analysis (July 2023) showed several changes in the assumptions used for the projected period in Greater Kordofan, Greater Darfur, Khartoum and Al Gazira. While classifications of other states remain as initially projected, the area of Hamshkoraib in Kassala has also been revised.
Compared to the previous second projection analysis in June 2023, around 1.7 million (4 percent) of the population has shifted from IPC Phase 1 (None/Minimal) to IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), while the estimated populations facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) increased from 15 million people (31 percent) to 17.7 million people (37 percent). There has been a 4 percent increase in populations in Phase 3 and a 2 percent increase in those in Phase 4.
Conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and other organized violence continues to be the main drivers of life-threatening food insecurity in Sudan. The most acutely food insecure populations are in states affected by high levels of organized violence, including Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan and Khartoum – especially the tri-city area of Khartoum, Bahri and Omdurman. Across all areas heavily affected by conflict and organized violence, civilians experiencing restrictions on movement, including due to sieges, are at heightened risk of high levels of food insecurity. Some sections of the tri-city area are of particular concern, including the al-Fatihab neighborhood of southern Omdurman, which is adjacent to an intact – though contested – White Nile bridge and other strategic locations.
Access to people in need is one of the greatest challenges facing humanitarian partners and stakeholders. The conflict dynamics have become increasingly complex, making it challenging for humanitarian partners to deliver lifesaving and life-sustaining assistance to people trapped in conflict hotspots, including Khartoum, the Kordofans, and the Darfur states.
In Khartoum state, 3,9 million people (55 percent of the population) face high level of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), while in Greater Darfur about 5,3 million people (that represent 46 percent of the total population in Darfur region) are likely to be in Phase 3 or above. In Greater Kordofan, about 2,7 million (44 percent of the total population in Kordofan states) are in Phase 3 or above. These figures are the highest ever recorded that coincide with Sudan’s harvesting season. Across all the states, 15 localities in Greater Darfur and 10 localities in greater Kordofan are classified in Phase 4 due to conflict, low production, high prices and limited humanitarian access for vulnerable people in need of assistance.
Ongoing conflict between the SAF and the RSF is deepening the humanitarian crisis and worsening the food security situations of the people in several urban, semi-urban and rural areas. The escalation of violence in Khartoum, Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan has triggered the large-scale displacement of 6.3 million people across all states of Sudan – including over 1.5 million people who have fled to neighboring countries, such as Chad (550,000), South Sudan (400,000) and Egypt (350,000). The conflict has also resulted in damage to and destruction of critical infrastructure, including healthcare facilities, schools, roads, power and water sources as well as telecommunications assets. Widespread looting of markets, banks, industries and public buildings has led to an increased shortage of essential services, food and non-food items across the country, further aggravating the fragile food insecurity and malnutrition.
Persistent intense urban conflict – particularly in key trade and commerce centers and along primary routes – is foreseen to continue, significantly hampering business operations. This disruption is expected to interrupt salary payments, diminish consumer activity, disrupt both food and non-food supply chains and lead to an economic contraction, thereby reducing purchasing power, which is only slightly supported by remittances from abroad. The price of food and essential commodities has soared, limiting market-access for people – particularly those that do not rely on agriculture. According to reports from numerous states, including those unaffected by the ongoing fighting, the conflict between SAF and RSF in Sudan is endangering the production of staple crops this year due to limited availability and distribution of seeds, inputs and agricultural finance as well as restricted access to land for cultivation, livestock movement and seasonal activities.
Despite the continued challenges, humanitarian assistance has played a crucial role in providing live saving support to people in need. With the provision of humanitarian assistance, many of the areas facing intense conflict will are likely to experience higher levels of food insecurity.