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Conflict and high staple food prices likely to drive Crisis and Emergency outcomes in 2016
KEY MESSAGES
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Below-average agricultural production in 2015, expected high staple food prices, very poor pasture conditions, and continued conflict in the Darfurs, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile States are leading to much higher assistance needs in 2016. Between March and September 2016, more than 4 million people will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. The number of rural, resident households expected to be in Crisis is about twice as high as in a typical year.
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National 2015/16 cereal production is about 25 percent below the recent five-year average, in part due to El Niño-related dryness in eastern surplus-producing areas. Imports and aboveaverage carryover stocks from 2014/15 are substantially reinforcing cereal availability at the national level. However, in western Sudan, below-average production and poor market integration with eastern and central Sudan are likely to lead to significant staple food price increases.
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Below-average production is of particular concern in parts of North Kordofan, West Kordofan, Kassala, Red Sea, White Nile, and the Darfur States. Moreover, pasture availability is estimated to be 40 to 60 percent below-average nationally, leading to large sales of livestock at below-average prices, which is expected to continue through June. Very poor households in these areas are likely to exhaust their food stocks by the end of February, and by March will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
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Armed conflict since mid-January between SAF and SLA-AW forces in the Jebel Marra area has displaced nearly 90,000 people to North Darfur and thousands more to West Darfur State and within the Jebel Marra area. IDPs not receiving food assistance and/or host community support are most likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Conflict-related disruptions to agricultural production, livelihood activities, and markets will also drive IDPs and poor households in SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan State into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) with the early start of the lean season in March 2015.