Attachments
Key Messages
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The recent expansion of fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into parts of central and eastern Sudan has driven a significant increase in humanitarian needs during the typical harvesting season (December and January). This development is expected to lead to considerable deterioration in acute food insecurity in the southeast from what was previously expected, worsening an already severe situation. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected across much of the country, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in heavily conflict-affected urban areas of Khartoum, Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and parts of Blue Nile. Of highest concern are populations in parts of Khartoum, El Geneina, Nyala, Wad Madani, and among the displaced due to the impacts of intensive fighting and disruption to humanitarian aid.
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In the eight months of war between SAF and RSF, the conflict continues to be characterized by extensive looting of public and private property, including assets and food stocks; widespread damage and destruction of critical infrastructure; disruption of trade flows, markets, and basic services, including delivery of humanitarian aid; and significant displacement. Following recent attacks in Al Jazirah and the theft of 2,500 metric tons of assistance from a World Food Program (WFP) warehouse in Wad Madani, assistance remains suspended in the state, and distribution to hard-to-reach areas of Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan remains extremely challenging and inconsistent. As of the end of December, over 7 million people have been displaced by the conflict – 5.8 million internally and 1.5 million fleeing across borders.
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The fighting in central and eastern Sudan, which is the country's most important region for crop production, is a serious threat to national food availability. Significant disruption to the ongoing main season harvest and cultivation of winter wheat is expected to further reduce production levels, which were already forecasted to be below average. Furthermore, given lack of restraint in looting and destruction of market and household food stocks, the anticipated movement of the conflict into Gedaref, a critical location for national grain storage, adds to the alarm for serious supply losses and impacts on national food availability, leading to an even earlier, atypical start of the lean season.
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In December, prices overall continued to rise across most markets despite the ongoing harvesting, indicative of disruption to trade flows, high production costs, and the impact of anticipated below-average harvests. However, the disruption to market functionality due to the recent attacks led to wide fluctuations in market prices within the course of a few days in December – prices reportedly dropped rapidly in mid- to late-December in the recently affected main production markets due to significant disruption to the markets and excess sale of stocks by traders due to high risk of looting.