Attachments
Key Messages
- In Greater Kordofan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is ongoing in Kadugli, and possibly occurring in Dilling, amid intensifying sieges of both towns.Between February and May, it is possible Famine (IPC Phase 5) will continue in both towns and expand to surrounding rural areas of the Western Nuba Mountains near Dilling. As fighting spreads, near-daily displacement, looting, and severe disruptions to livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access are expected to persist, and drive extreme levels of hunger, acute malnutrition, and hunger-related mortality.
- In Al-Fasher of North Darfur, the vast majority of civilians have fled or died since late October and the population is thus below the level required for classification of Famine (IPC Phase 5). However, the outflow of tens of thousands of starving, malnourished people to other parts of North Darfur that are concurrently experiencing waves of conflict has led to a surge of people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and high global acute malnutrition (GAM) in these other areas.In Um Baru and Kernoi, for example, the GAM prevalence spiked to 54 and 34 percent, respectively, by mid-December. Many displaced from Al-Fasher and from ongoing conflict in nearby areas have already died from extreme, life-threatening hunger. Many more are at imminent risk of death without immediate access to food and nutrition assistance.
- Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to spread across parts of Greater Darfur – notably in North Darfur – and most of Greater Kordofan through May where clashes and displacement are most intense. Humanitarian access and trade flows are increasingly impeded by insecurity, bans on movement of goods, and rising fuel costs following attacks at Heglig oil field. Some populations, particularly among those repeatedly displaced across North and South Darfur, and in Greater Kordofan, are expected to experience Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
- A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) is assessed in rural Al-Fasher, Melit, Um Baru, Kernoi, and Tawila (North Darfur); areas with high concentrations of displaced people in South Darfur and South Kordofan; and in El-Obeid of North Kordofan. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in the most likely scenario, but there is a credible alternative scenario in which conflict cuts off trade and humanitarian access, restricts population mobility, and isolates populations from food sources, causing Famine (IPC Phase 5).
This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 31, 2025.