Attachments
Key Messages
- Protracted, extreme siege conditions have led to Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Al-Fasher (North Darfur) and Kadugli (South Kordofan) towns,a classification the IPC’s Famine Review Committee finds plausibleFamine Review Committee. FEWS NET assesses it is possible that Famine (IPC Phase 5) is also ongoing in the besieged town of Dilling (South Kordofan), though direct, quantitative evidence is more limited.In the absence of a change in siege conditions, it is possible that Famine (IPC Phase 5) will continue in Kadugli and Dilling through May. In Al-Fasher, the fall of the town in late October gave way to mass killings and the flight of tens of thousands of civilians. Many civilians are trapped in the area, however, and Famine (IPC Phase 5) is expected to persist in the near term. FEWS NET is not classifying Al-Fasher town in February-May as it is uncertain whether at least 10,000 people will still be in the area.
- In rural areas of the western Nuba Mountains, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomesare expected from October to January (harvest and post-harvest period) in the most likely scenario. However, there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5)during this period. By February-May, FEWS NET assesses Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible in this area. Marginal harvests will be exhausted by then, and the spillover effects of the sieges of Kadugli and Dilling – including severe trade and humanitarian access constraints, looting and destruction of assets, and high displacement – are expected to cut off households’ access to remaining sources of food.
- Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is expected among populations displaced by conflict across North and South Darfur, and among populations in Sheikan in North Kordofan (where El-Obeid town is located) through May. Levels of starvation and acute malnutrition are high, particularly in overcrowded displacement sites. In Sheikan, intensifying conflict and looting are sharply reducing access to food and income.
- A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) is assessed in rural Al-Fasher, Melit, and Tawila (North Darfur); areas with high concentrations of displaced people in South Darfur and South Kordofan; and El Obeid. While Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in the most likely scenario, there is a credible alternative scenario in which conflict cuts off trade and humanitarian access, restricts population mobility, and isolates populations from food sources, causing Famine (IPC Phase 5).
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 31, 2025.