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The humanitarian crisis in Sudan continues to deteriorate as the lean season ends and the pre-harvest period begins amid ongoing conflict, devastating floods, and soaring prices. The tightening blockade and ongoing fighting in Al Fasher, North Darfur, has prevented the delivery of commercial and humanitarian supplies, and the latest data collected by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) confirm that acute malnutrition rates remain above the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs). While data remain limited for nearby Abu Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps, ground information triangulated with satellite imagery analysis suggests significant civilian movement away from these camps and towards Zamzam, driven by the heavy fighting in the city and likely hope for better protection and access to services in Zamzam. Meanwhile, based on new information that is currently under review, FEWS NET is increasingly alarmed that similarly extreme acute food insecurity outcomes are occurring among internally displaced populations in the besieged areas of Dilling and possibly Kadugli, South Kordofan. FEWS NET continues to regularly assess the potential that Famine (IPC Phase 5) is ongoing in additional areas based on all available evidence.
At a minimum, there is a persistent risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in multiple areas where a significant share of the host community and IDPs are already facing large to extreme food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). These include areas with high concentrations of IDPs across Greater Darfur and in parts of South Kordofan; parts of North and West Darfur; and parts of Khartoum (Figure 1 in the PDF). Newly available acute malnutrition data collected via SMART surveys between June and September by Nutrition Cluster partners corroborate prior ground reports of the ongoing severity of malnourishment across many areas of North, Central, and West Darfur at the peak of the lean season. Historic rainfall has exacerbated seasonal disease outbreaks such as malaria and likely contributed to worsening malnutrition levels, with nine localities experiencing a statistically significant increase in global acute malnutrition (GAM) when compared to 2018 baseline levels (Figure 2). In 13 localities, the GAM prevalence among children under five is already in the high range of Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9 percent) or has passed above the Extremely Critical threshold (≥30 percent). In areas around Nyala of South Darfur, data collected among children under two years of age by MSF similarly point to worryingly high malnutrition levels. All-cause mortality data collected by these same surveys suggest less extreme outcomes; however, a protracted acute food insecurity Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and high levels of acute malnutrition are harbingers of accelerating hunger-related deaths.
FEWS NET urges government and humanitarian actors to take immediate action to facilitate large-scale, sustained delivery of food and nutrition assistance that saves lives. The classification of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in other areas of Sudan will only confirm that excess hunger-related mortality – which is already occurring – has crossed an extreme threshold for human suffering and loss of life, reflecting a failure to heed clear evidence from early warning systems.