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Available data indicate that Famine1 is possibly ongoing in Al-Fasher town of North Darfur, inclusive of displaced populations in Abu Shouk and Al-Salam camps, and will continue through at least early 2026. “Famine Possible” is used to communicate the analysis conclusions prior to a Famine Review Committee (FRC) review,2 which is required before publicly issuing an official IPC Phase classification of Famine. Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) – which is in the vicinity of Al-Fasher town and previously assessed to be in Famine (IPC Phase 5) – was depopulated after the targeted attack by the RSF in April 2025. In the other 8 localities where the FRC had previously concluded on a Famine (IPC Phase 5) classification, available data suggest Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes – associated with elevated levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality – are currently ongoing and will most likely continue through at least early 2026. There remains a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in these and other areas, including: rural Al-Fasher, Melit, Tawila, Al-Lait, At-Tawisha, and Um Kedadah in North Darfur; parts of South and West Kordofan, particularly in the Nuba Mountains3 area, and parts of South and Central Darfur with high concentrations of displaced populations.If conflict and heavy seasonal rainfall were to cut off household access to food and humanitarian assistance and exacerbate the ongoing cholera outbreak, then levels of starvation, malnutrition, and mortality from hunger or the interaction of hunger and disease would most likely increase rapidly and surpass the three thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5). The period of highest risk is in September and October, before national cereal harvests become available from October to December. While very limited evidence is currently available for areas in Khartoum and Al-Jazirah, the severity of food security conditions in those areas still warrants close monitoring through the lean season.
North Darfur
In July and August, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) tightened their 15-month siege on Al-Fasher town, preventing remaining civilian populations from leaving safely and blocking the arrival of food, goods, and assistance.Widespread key informant and media reporting indicate food shortages are becoming so dire as to propel food prices to new extreme highs, trigger the closure of community kitchens, and force the remaining population to increasingly rely on severe coping strategies, such as consumption of animal fodder. Civilians’ attempts to flee come with extraordinary risk to their lives and safety. No food assistance has reached the town in over a year, and the impact of limited cash assistance is assessed to be constrained by market access challenges, skyrocketing prices, and worsening food shortages.
While recent direct evidence of food security outcomes in Al-Fasher town is limited by humanitarian access constraints, outcomes can be extrapolated from previously collected data, populations who have managed to escape the area, and analysis of contributing factors. Based on the FRC’s last report issued in December 2024, Famine (IPC Phase 5) was projected to continue in Al-Fasher locality through at least May 2025, and available data collected in 2025 provide evidence that global acute malnutrition (GAM) and hunger-related mortality remain above the Famine (IPC Phase 5) thresholds within the town. In March 2025, a rapid needs assessment conducted by NGO partners among IDPs in informal gathering sites in Al-Fasher town found 38 percent of children under five were acutely malnourished based on mid-upper arm circumference (GAM-MUAC). In June, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported a 29 percent GAM-MUAC prevalence among Sudanese refugee children at the Al-Tine border crossing (between North Darfur and Chad) who had fled Al-Fasher and surrounding IDP camps. In July, a SMART survey conducted among IDPs in Tawila – most of whom had also fled Zamzam IDP camp and Al-Fasher town for safety and food assistance – found a 22 percent GAM prevalence based on weight-for-height z-score (GAM-WHZ). Even acknowledging the distances traveled (over 330 kilometers [km] to the Al-Tine border and about 60 km to Tawila camps) and the difficulties IDPs encountered along the way, acute malnutrition levels are likely even worse among the population remaining in Al-Fasher town given the rapid deterioration in food security, nutrition, health, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions as the siege tightened in July and August.
Mortality data continues to be limited. However, the SMART survey of IDPs in Tawila found a crude mortality rate (CMR) of 1.33 deaths per 10,000 people per day during the 3-month window between April and July 2025. This CMR captures both traumatic and non-traumatic deaths, and the recall period is inclusive of the targeted attack on Zamzam camp from where most of these IDPs fled. Similar to the assumption underpinning the interpretation of the acute malnutrition results, it is highly likely that hunger-related mortality is considerably higher within the town, given that this population has been routinely targeted, increasingly confined, and subject to a combination of rising starvation, acute malnutrition, disease, and violence since the prior determination of Famine (IPC Phase 5). A recent satellite imagery analysis by Yale Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) assessed a sharp increase in civilian burial sites between May and August, with graveyard expansion potentially occurring more rapidly than identified in Zamzam in December 2024, further supporting the likelihood that mortality remains above the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold.
Neighboring rural areas of Al-Fasher locality, as well as Melit and Tawila localities, are facing severe spillover effects from the siege of Al-Fasher town as hundreds of thousands of IDPs have arrived malnourished and with few to no assets for survival. In addition to the 22 percent GAM-WHZ observed among IDP children in Tawila, SMART surveys found a 15.7 percent prevalence among other children in Tawila and a 34 percent prevalence in Melit in July.4 According to the International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM), Tawila has the highest IDP burden in North Darfur since the war began in April 2023 (about 560,000 as of the end of June), followed by Al-Fasher locality (nearly 270,000 IDPs, most of whom are sheltering in rural areas). While IOM DTM reports only around 60,000 IDPs in Melit, this is likely an underestimate due to the volatility of population movements.
The arrival of additional IDPs is sustaining high concern for populations in rural Al-Fasher and Melit, due to compounding impacts of insecurity-driven constraints on mobility, food and humanitarian access, and a severe cholera outbreak. Most recently, an aerial attack on [August 20](https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/statement-united-nations-resident-and-humanitarian-coordinator-ai-sudan-luca-renda#:~:text=(Port%20Sudan%2C%2021%20August%202025,must%20never%20be%20a%20target) struck 3 of 16 trucks offloading aid at a warehouse in Melit, illustrating the severity of operational challenges. In Tawila, the humanitarian response is not only working to meet high food and shelter needs but also combating a rapid surge in cholera cases, fueled by overcrowded and poor WASH conditions in IDP camps. While food is available in Melit and Tawila’s markets, prices are prohibitively high, and most people are heavily dependent on international and local cash and food aid, including community kitchens. Currently, the CMR in Melit (0.41) and for the host population in Tawila (0.66) is relatively low;5 however, hunger-related deaths would likely rapidly escalate and cross the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold in Melit, rural parts of Al-Fasher locality, and Tawila if conflict and/or seasonal rains and flash floods were to prevent populations from moving in search of food or cut off humanitarian access for a prolonged period.
While localities in eastern North Darfur (At-Tawisha, Al-Lait, and Um Kedadah) remain further from the epicenter of conflict with few direct clashes in Um Kedadah and a relatively low burden of IDPs, data indicate high levels of malnourishment during the ongoing lean season. According to SMART surveys conducted in At-Tawisha and Al-Lait in July,6 29.4 percent and 19.6 percent of children under five are acutely malnourished, respectively (down from 33.3 and 31.6 percent, respectively, in the 2024 lean season). Mortality rates remain low at 0.37 and 0.68, respectively. Distributions of food assistance have been ongoing in At-Tawisha and Al-Lait since May, scaling up to reach approximately 100,000 people per month in June and July. Given the severity of acute malnutrition levels and the heavy dependence on humanitarian assistance, however, these areas also face a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), particularly in advance of the harvest.
Greater Kordofan
Conflict and insecurity remain high across Greater Kordofan as the RSF, Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) continue to vie for control of territory. Parts of Greater Kordofan, including the Western Nuba Mountains (covering most of Dilling and Habila localities of South Kordofan and parts of As-Sunut and Lagowa localities of West Kordofan), faced Famine (IPC Phase 5) in late 2024. Since early 2025, however, the easing of siege-like conditions has improved population mobility and access to food. Recent SMART survey data7 from South Kordofan appears to corroborate the relative improvement compared to August 2024; however, recent gains in food security conditions remain fragile and are at risk of sharp deterioration if siege-like conditions intensify and expand. Among host populations in the Western Nuba Mountains, severe-to-catastrophic hunger among households as measured by the Household Hunger Scale (HHS) declined from 22.6 percent in August 2024 to 4.1 percent in July 2025, and GAM-WHZ prevalence among children under five declined from 31.8 percent to 6.7 percent. Displacement dynamics have shifted considerably since the last lean season, limiting the ability to assess IDPs separately from the host communities. Still, according to a screening in one IDP camp in the area, acute malnutrition levels were considerably higher than among the host population, at 20.2 percent GAM-WHZ.
Despite the relative improvement, the recent resumption of siege-like conditions around Kadugli and Dilling towns is highly concerning following RSF and SPLM-N’s seizure of main trade routes into the area in August. While recent data on food security outcomes in these urban areas is unavailable, widespread media reporting of food shortages – corroborated by rapidly escalating prices, pressure on community kitchens, and anecdotal reports of rising malnutrition – suggests levels of hunger and malnutrition are high. The escalating clashes have also resulted in renewed displacement: between August 6 and 10, IOM DTM estimated that over 3,000 people were displaced from Kadugli town due to the ongoing conflict and deteriorating economic and food security conditions. The recent arrival of a humanitarian convoy into Dilling, and its anticipated movement onward to Kadugli, is a welcome sign that conditions may stabilize. However, there is a risk that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would materialize in both urban and rural areas if the armed parties’ tactics were to prevent further assistance and cut off informal trade flows into the area along smaller routes.
In the nearby Central Nuba Mountains (covering most of Delami, Heiban Thobo, and Umdorein localities and the southern portion of Kadugli locality of South Kordofan), SMART survey data among IDPs similarly found a decline in the severity of hunger and malnutrition relative to August 2024: the share of households with severe-to-catastrophic hunger as measured by HHS declined from 19 to 15 percent, while acute malnutrition among children under five declined from 19 to 12 percent. However, disaggregation of the survey results by date of arrival suggests the severity of hunger and malnutrition are highest among those who have been newly displaced by the increasing levels of conflict and disruptions along the eastern border of SPLM-N territory in South Kordofan (in Heiban, Ghadeer, and Dalami localities). This insight underscores that the risk of a Famine (IPC Phase 5) scenario also persists in these areas of South Kordofan.
Other areas of Greater Darfur and eastern Sudan
There is also a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in parts of Central and South Darfur, particularly in areas with high concentrations of IDPs. While aerial attacks continue, particularly in South Darfur, the reduction in direct clashes between RSF and SAF since RSF consolidated control of much of Darfur in late 2023 and early 2024, and the sustained opening of the Adre border-crossing points with Chad, have allowed increased flows of commercial and humanitarian supplies to some areas. However, displacement dynamics are highly volatile, and access to food remains constrained by high costs, limited income-generating opportunities, and persistent insecurity. Large population movements from North Darfur into areas of Jebel Marrah of Central Darfur and parts of South Darfur that neighbor Tawila are fueling a surging cholera outbreak in South and Central Darfur, exacerbated by poor WASH and rainy season conditions. According to a recent MSF report, the number of cholera cases in South Darfur has surpassed 1,500, with over 80 deaths between May and early August. In parts of Central Darfur, cases have been trending rapidly upward since late July and early August.
In eastern Sudan, SAF’s expanded territorial control and the ensuing relative stability have facilitated the return of millions of IDPs since March. Between November 2024 and the end of July 2025, IOM DTM estimates 2 million people returned to their homes – mostly to Al-Jazirah (48 percent), Khartoum (30 percent), Sennar (9 percent), Blue Nile (7 percent), and White Nile (5 percent) – with an estimated 670,000 people returning in July alone. Trade and market functionality are gradually improving, and households are beginning to re-establish their livelihoods. The pace of recovery will be slow due to the devastation that nearly three years of conflict wrought on basic infrastructure and public services, market systems, and productive assets. A vaccination campaign has helped reduce the cholera caseload in Khartoum and Al-Jazirah in recent months, but the threat of disease outbreaks remains high given poor WASH conditions and the influx of populations from other areas. Food and cash assistance is also ongoing, albeit limited by funding shortfalls that have necessitated careful prioritization and an overall reduction in planned distributions, particularly in the east. In July, WFP reported reaching approximately 480,000 people in Khartoum and 1 million people in the northeast with cash and food assistance. Given the continued challenges, high levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition are expected to persist through at least the peak of the lean season in many of the east’s most conflict-affected areas.