A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
The second nationwide elections for Sudan will take place in April 2015. Given the history of the country and existing political tensions in many areas there is high risk of violence around the elections as the government continues to ignore opposition calls to postpone the vote and form a transitional government. Initial scenario setting carried out by SRCS branch directors and staff suggested that the elections could trigger a major escalation of existing conflict in some states. This might result in extensive displacement and humanitarian needs in several states, especially in the conflict areas of Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile and transitional areas.
The dispute and tension began between the government (the ruling party NCP) and the opposition parties. As mentioned, the Sudanese president rejected the opposition parties’ call participating in the national dialogue process to delay the election. Tension between the government allied parties and the opposition parties is already building with plans to boycott the election, especially in Khartoum, White Nile State, Blue Nile State, South Kordofan, West Kordofan and Darfur.
The national election commission announced the general election will begin on 2 April 2015 and will run until the 27 April with different polls being conducted. The process timeline is as follows:
Campaigns: 24 February to 10 April.
Two days of “election silence”:11- 12 April.
Voting polling days: 3 to 15 April.
Announcement of final result.27 April
Based on previous experiences, most of the unrest is expected at the end of April and early May for approximately week after the final results are announced.