Sudan: Eight months of conflict - Key Facts and Figures (15 December 2023)

Eight months after fighting erupted, Sudan is facing one of the fastest unfolding crises globally, with unprecedented needs in such a short period. More than 6.7 million people – almost one in every seven people in the country - have fled their homes since the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) started in mid-April. They have sought refuge within Sudan or in neighbouring countries.

More than 5.4 million people displaced within Sudan and 1.3 million crossed the borders

According to the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM), more than 5.4 million people have been displaced by fighting within Sudan and have sought refuge in 5,939 locations across all 18 states. The displaced are from eight states, with the majority - about 3.5 million people (65 per cent of all internally displaced) - originally from Khartoum. Most have sought refuge in South Darfur followed by River Nile, East Darfur, Aj Jazirah, North Darfur, White Nile, Northern, Central Darfur, Sennar and other states. About 1.4 million people have -seeked refugee in the neighbouring Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Sudan as of 11 December, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).

More than 7,700 suspected cholera cases, other disease outbreaks

Disease outbreaks are increasing due to the disruption of basic public health services, including disease surveillance, functioning public health laboratory and rapid response teams. In addition, insecurity, displacement, limited access to medicines, medical supplies, electricity, and water continue to pose enormous challenges to delivering health care across the country. About 65 per cent of the population lack access to healthcare and between 70 - 80 per cent of hospitals in conflict-affected areas are no longer functional. Meanwhile, 7,725 suspected cases of cholera, including 216 deaths, have been reported from nine states as of 15 December, according to the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Other disease outbreaks are ongoing in several states, including measles, malaria and dengue.

About 17.7 million people face acute hunger, 4.9 million in emergency levels

Devastating conflict and organized violence, coupled with the continued economic decline, have driven about 17.7 million people across Sudan (37 per cent of the population) into high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between October 2023 and February 2024. This includes about 4.9 million people (10 per cent of the population) who are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and almost 12.8 million people (27 per cent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). FAO sounded the alarm about the escalating food security crisis in the Sudan, urging immediate and collective action to avert an impending humanitarian catastrophe. Parts of Sudan are at a high risk of slipping into catastrophic hunger conditions by next year’s lean season if WFP is unable to expand access and regularly deliver food assistance to people trapped in conflict hotspots such as Khartoum, the Darfurs, and the Kordofans, WFP warned. 19 million children out of school

The conflict has deprived about 12 million children of schooling since April, with the total number of children in Sudan who are out of school reaching 19 million, Save the Children (SC) and the UN Children’s Agency (UNICEF) reported. Of this total, 6.5 million children — or 1 in every 3 children in the country — have lost access to school due to increased violence and insecurity, with at least 10,400 schools now closed in conflict - affected areas. Meanwhile, over 5.5 million children who reside in areas less affected by war are waiting for local authorities to confirm whether classrooms can be re-opened. Before April, nearly 7 million children were already out of school. If the war continues, no child in Sudan can return to school in the coming months, exposing them to immediate and long-term dangers, including displacement, recruitment into armed groups and sexual violence. Sudan is on the brink of becoming home to the worst education crisis in the world,” according to UNICEF.

Livelihoods decimated, economy to shrink by 12 per cent in 2023

The conflict is devastating the livelihoods of millions of people in Sudan. According to the World Bank, the economy is expected to contract by 12 per cent in 2023 because the conflict has halted production and destroyed human capital and state capacity. The growth forecast for Sudan has been revised downward by 12.5 percentage points as the armed conflict has damaged the country’s industrial base and education and health facilities. It has also led to a collapse in economic activity — including commerce, financial, and information and communications technology services — and the erosion of state capacity, with detrimental impacts on food security and forced displacement. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Sudan’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will reduce by 18 per cent by the end of 2023.

For comparison, the economies of Yemen and Syria have shrunk by about 50 per cent over the past decade, or about 5 per cent per year on average. The pace of economic contraction in Sudan seems to have more than doubled that.

About 4.9 million people receive lifesaving assistance since April

Despite various challenges - insecurity, looting, bureaucratic impediments, poor network and phone connectivity problems, lack of cash, and few technical and humanitarian staff on the ground – affecting the delivery of humanitarian assistance in many parts of the country, the humanitarian organizations have reached about 4.9 million people with multisectoral life-saving assistance and 5.7 million people with agriculture and livelihood support since the start of the conflict. Prior to the conflict, 2.7 million people were reached with some form of humanitarian assistance from January to March 2023. This includes vital education, health, food, nutrition, water assistance and protection services.

More funding needed to reach more people

The 163 UN and NGO partners in Sudan can provide more people with assistance and services if the funding for humanitarian response is expedited. The revised 2023 Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) requires US$2.6 billion to provide life-saving multi-sectoral and protection assistance to 18.1 million people in desperate need through the end of this year. According to the Financial Tracking Service, the appeal is only 39.3 per cent funded, with $1,007.7 million received as of 15 December.