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Sudan

Sudan Crisis Analysis: Remote Sensing to Anticipate Agriculture Conditions: Gedaref State

Attachments

MARCH 2024

This paper is an update to satellite imagery analysis conducted in August and September 2023 across Sudan, measuring vegetation levels in agricultural areas to better understand the impact of conflict on agriculture. This further analysis assesses the impact of weather conditions (rainfall, soil moisture, temperature) on vegetation health, and tentatively predicts vegetation health in agricultural areas for the 2024 early planting season, as a proxy for agricultural productivity. This paper focuses on the outlook for Gedaref State. Papers covering Kassala, Blue Nile, and South Kordofan States, and an overall briefing paper for all four states, were also produced as part of this analysis.(1)

Key Findings

  • The main soil type in Gedaref is versitols- this is clay-rich soil, which is generally chemically fertile but has a relatively poor capacity to absorb water. In previous years, Gedaref has been particularly susceptible to erratic rainfall causing both flash flooding and dry spells, with soil moisture a dominant factor affecting vegetation health.

  • Rainfall and soil moisture projections suggest that from March to July 2024, weather conditions will be particularly favourable for cultivation in the centre Gedaref State, while conditions are projected to be unfavourable in small areas in the central-south and south-east borders.

  • Despite favourable weather conditions, long-term maintenance challenges, and armed clashes, suggest that cultivation in the Rahad Irrigation Scheme may be severely disrupted in early 2024.

  • Secondary data indicates that agricultural production in Gedaref will likely be impacted by desert locust invasions, lack of agricultural inputs and agricultural assistance, and market disruptions caused by conflict. Other factors which may impact production are poor irrigation infrastructure, displacement, and disruption to the labour market.

(1) These will be published on the Mercy Corps resources website