Up to 1.3 million people are expected to be food insecure during 2009. This group is comprised of returnees, the chronically food insecure, and households negatively affected by conflicts, dry spells, and flooding in 2008. Most of the food insecure populations are located in areas highlighted in Figure 1.
The potential movement of 1.5 million displaced Darfur residents into southern Sudan's Northern and Western Bahr El Gazal states, due to disruptions in humanitarian assistance, presents a severe threat to food security in the two states.
A segment of the populations residing in surplus crop producing areas, especially in Yambio, Ezo, and Maridi, are increasingly food insecure due to escalating Lords Resistance Army attacks (LRA) since December 2008. An estimated 100,000 people could be affected.
Looking ahead, areas to watch for worsening food security conditions are northern parts of the Western
Flood Plains (Northern and Western Bahr El Gazal), Greenbelt (Yambio, Ezo, Maridi), and Eastern Flood Plains (Waat, Wuror and Akobo). Pibor County is of emerging concern given the likely negative impact of a recent massive cattle raiding (early March).
Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions March 2009