South Sudan: Annual Needs and Livelihoods Assessment 2010/2011

Executive Summary

The findings of the 2010/11 Annual Needs and Livelihood Analysis (ANLA) indicate an improvement in food security compared to 2009. About 9.7% of the population will be severely food insecure compared to 21% in 2009. This severely food insecure is the segment of the population that is generally unable to meet their food and non-food needs from April onwards and would require unconditional humanitarian food and non-food transfers. The moderately food insecure category, generally able to meet their food needs unless there is a major shock, is estimated at 26% compared to 32% in 2009. They will require targeted conditional livelihood transfers, which include seeds, tools, training and income generation activities.

The food consumption score has improved markedly for most households and the number of households using distress or high-level coping strategies has declined. However, there is a continual reliance on unreliable and unsustainable income sources such as sale of firewood, building poles, which has direct consequences on the environment and also undermines other non-timber forest resources such as gum acacia and honey, which are potential income sources. Overall there was no significant difference in the consumption of cereals between the food consumption groups but the consumption of both animal and plant-based protein among the food consumption groups is clearly different. This is an indication of the need not only to pay attention to increasing food production but also the diversification of food base to ensure nutritionally adequate consumption.

There are number of risk factors that could undermine the gains in food security situation in 2010/2011. These include: continued high food prices due to expected declines in cross-border trade flows and number of traders during the referendum period, high returnee influx and potential adverse changes in security along the border area of northern and southern Sudan related to the outcome of the referendum.

Southern Sudan is continually affected alternately (or sometime in combination) by droughts and floods. An institutional mechanism is needed both at the state and GoSS-levels to support broad-based programming approaches encompassing early detection (through increased use of seasonal forecasts) and monitoring, preparedness and early response to minimize persistent effect of natural shocks on food production and supply. This requires the enhanced roles of the Food Security Technical Secretariat, focusing on hazard detection and monitoring and advocacy, and the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management dealing with preparedness and early response.

Insecurity has a multi-dimensional effect on livelihoods. It disrupts normal cultivation activities, constrains access to social facilities health, schools and markets, and affects movement and trade. It also creates conditions that limit access to food and potable water and affect the functioning and provisioning of health facilities. Therefore increased civilian protection as well as broad-based livelihood programming is required to address deep-rooted causes of conflicts as well as triggers of recurrent conflicts such as competition for resources.

The 2010/2011 ANLA mark a major shift in approach in the identification and estimation of needs from assessment to analysis. This shift is aimed to strengthen cross-sectoral analysis and partnership and promote broad-based programming. From 2010 the ANLA will be based on a system of regular food security monitoring rather than the one time single assessment conducted in the post-harvest season. This will generate information during the year which provides a basis for continuous engagement and analysis throughout the year.

This ANLA is based on the food security monitoring conducted in October 5-15, 2010 covering 1831 households in 8 out of 10 states. Data from secondary sources namely 2009 Sudan National Household Baseline Survey, 2006 Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment (CFSVA), Livelihood Analysis

Forum Analysis IPC-based food security outlook and Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission were reviewed, analyzed and integrated by the Annual Needs and Livelihood Analysis Technical Group.

Sudan is currently ranked 154th out 169 in 2010 according to the UNDP Human Development Index. The poverty rate for southern Sudan is 50.6%. Southern Sudan is well endowed with natural resources, in addition to oil and minerals. However only 4% of arable land is cultivated, total livestock production is 20% of the potential, while fish production is only about 10% of the potential. These provide immense opportunities to enhance the overall economic and social well-being in southern Sudan. The exploitation of these resources is inhibited by structural factors including: limited infrastructure (roads, markets and social facilities), human capital and low integration and persistent insecurity. Especially increased public investment in infrastructure would assist to exploit this high potential.

According to the 2010 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM), rainfall performance was favourable both in terms of onset and distribution. As a result there was a net increase in cereal production of close to 30% from 541,000 tons to 695,000 tons. This was attributed to an 8% increase in planted area in 2010 compared to 2009 and a modest increase in yield from 0.82 ton/ha to 0.95 ton/ha. However, the productivity gain is still very low compared to the average expected sorghum yield of 2.5-3.5 ton/ha. Overall agricultural productivity cannot be achieved in isolation; interventions to improve husbandry practices at the farm-level should be linked with improvements in infrastructure and markets, health and nutrition, water and sanitation and conflicts, among others. These are discussed in detail in the respective report sections and more sector- specific recommendations are given in Table 14 on page 42.