The streets of Khartoum State bear witness to an increasingly unspoken tragedy. Ruined buildings, displaced families, and mass graves tell the story of a war whose impact has remained largely silent to the outside world.
Over the first 14 months of the conflict in Sudan, an estimated 61,000 lives were lost in this state alone. These deaths, according to a groundbreaking report by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), mark a 50% increase from pre-war mortality rates, with 26,000 of these fatalities directly caused by violence.
The magnitude of this loss becomes even more staggering when considering that over 90% of deaths have reportedly gone unrecorded. The chaos of war has stripped the country of the infrastructure needed to document its own suffering.
If Khartoum’s figures are an indication, the death toll in other regions—especially Darfur and Kordofan—could be far higher than reported.
A Crisis of Unseen Proportions
These, at least, are the findings of a London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LHSTM) study that is the first to empirically estimate mortality rates in Khartoum State during the conflict, which erupted in April 2023.
Using capture-recapture analysis, a statistical method designed to account for incomplete data, researchers pieced together a grim picture from fragmented sources. Surveys shared on social media, private networks, and obituaries posted by first responders were analysed to arrive at the report’s findings.
The results paint a harrowing portrait of war. The leading causes of death across Sudan are preventable diseases and starvation, underscoring the collapse of essential services. In Kordofan and Darfur, violence accounted for 80% and 69% of deaths, respectively, signalling targeted atrocities in historically vulnerable areas.
Khartoum, while serving as the focal point of the study, may only represent the tip of the iceberg. With 6,715 decedent records collected, the analysis highlights how the war’s toll remains obscured in rural areas and among lower-socioeconomic groups, who often lack access to telecommunication networks.
Wars Within a War
For Darfur and Kordofan, this conflict is not new—it is merely the latest chapter in a history of ethnic cleansing and marginalisation. The disproportionate levels of violence in these regions point to deliberate strategies of destruction.
“What we see in Kordofan and Darfur are wars within a war,” says Dr. Maysoon Dahab, lead author of the LSHTM study.
Across Sudan, the picture is heartbreaking. Hunger, disease, and displacement compound the violence, with famine conditions declared in some parts of Darfur.
Aid workers have described the crisis as the worst globally, yet it has received little international attention. For them, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have overshadowed Sudan’s suffering, leaving the country’s civilians to endure largely unnoticed.
The Urgent Need for Action
The findings of the LSHTM report highlight a humanitarian crisis that demands immediate intervention. Dr. Dahab stresses the need for scaled-up diplomatic efforts, humanitarian aid, and mechanisms to ensure accountability for war crimes.
“Efforts to stem further large-scale loss of life undoubtedly rest on vigorous diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to end the war and address its consequences,” Dr. Dahab explains. “Robust mechanisms must be established to account for human rights violations and war crimes that fuel the conflict across the country.”
As Sudan’s conflict continues, questions of accountability loom large. Reports from Amnesty International reveal violations of the UN arms embargo, with French-made military technology supplied to Darfur via the UAE.
The use of these weapons in Sudan has raised serious concerns about their role in fuelling atrocities. Amnesty has called for the embargo to be extended to all of Sudan and for stricter monitoring mechanisms.
Meanwhile, humanitarian agencies struggle to address the compounded effects of war, starvation, and disease. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has described starvation as “almost everywhere” in Sudan, while the UN has labeled the displacement crisis as the largest globally.
Limitations and Challenges
Despite its significant findings, the LSHTM study acknowledges its limitations. The lack of data from rural regions and marginalised groups means that the full scale of the crisis remains unknown. Most records were collected from Khartoum, leaving vast areas of Sudan without adequate documentation. Still, the report has exposed the human cost of war.
It calls for action not only to end the fighting but also to address the conditions—starvation, disease, and displacement—that look set to continue into the long night of Sudan’s future.