GIEWS Country Brief: Sudan 23-October-2017
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
After some early dry spells, cumulative aboveaverage rains from August to October triggered floods, but lifted crop production prospects
About 100 000 people estimated to be affected by floods in White Nile, South Darfur, North Kordofan,
Al Gezira, Sennar, West Darfur and Kassala states
Prices of cereals increased in recent months, with seasonal factors compounded by flood-induced market disruptions
Food security situation is concerning in South Kordofan and Darfur states and for South Sudanese refugees
According to OCHA, as of late September, 2.3 million vulnerable IDPs, essentially located in Darfur State, were in need humanitarian assistance
Above-average rains from August to October lifted prospects for 2017 cereal crops output
Sorghum and millet crops, planted in June-July, will be harvested from November. Cumulative seasonal rainfall has been above average throughout the country, but had an erratic temporal distribution in some areas. After an early onset of rains in mid-May, some dry spells in late June and July over Kassala State, southern parts of North Darfur State and northern parts of North Kordofan and Gadaref states had a negative impact on crop establishment and development. Subsequently, cumulative above-average rains from August to October triggered floods in White Nile, South Darfur, North Kordofan, Al Gezira, Sennar, West Darfur and Kassala states which affected about 100 000 people, but eased moisture deficits and lifted crop production prospects in the areas affected by early season dryness. According to remote sensing analysis (see ASI map) and the findings of a mid-season assessment led by the Government and supported by FAO and WFP, vegetation conditions are currently good over most cropping areas and overall cereal production is expected at above-average levels.
Prices of cereals increasing in recent months
Between July and September, prices of locally-produced sorghum and millet increased in most monitored markets by up to 30 and 45 percent, respectively, as seasonal patterns were compounded by market disruptions caused by floods. Despite these increases, prices of sorghum in September were, however, still around their year-earlier levels, due to adequate domestic availabilities from the above-average harvest gathered in 2016. Prices of millet, mainly grown and consumed in western regions, followed a sustained increasing trend during 2017 in Al Fashir market, located in the North Darfur State. Here, millet prices in September were about 70 percent higher than one year earlier, essentially due to civil insecurity, which disrupted trade flows and reduced availabilities from the 2016 harvest.
Prices of wheat, mostly imported and consumed in urban areas, declined by 16 percent between February and April 2017 in the capital, Khartoum, as the local harvest increased supplies. Subsequently, prices increased by over 30 percent between May and September, when they were about 60 percent higher than 12 months earlier and at record levels, underpinned by the depreciation of the local currency, foreign currency shortages, high production costs and sustained demand.
Food security situation is concerning in South Kordofan and Darfur states
According to the results of the latest IPC analysis, valid for the period June-September 2017, about 3.4 million people are estimated to be severely food insecure. Major concerns are for conflict-affected areas of South Kordofan and Darfur states, where poor households and IDPs face constrained access to livelihoods and income sources and are affected by the early depletion of cereal stocks due to localized production shortfalls during the 2016 season. According to OCHA, as of late September, 2.3 million vulnerable IDPs were in need humanitarian assistance, including 2.1 million in Darfur and 240 000 in Blue Nile and South Kordofan states.
High levels of food insecurity are also reported among refugees from South Sudan. The refugee influx increased in 2017, with 184 512 individuals arriving between January and mid-September 2017 mainly in White Nile, East and South Darfur and South Kordofan states, bringing the total number of South Sudanese refugees hosted in the country to 447 287 as of mid-September 2017.