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This brief summarizes FEWS NET’s most forward-looking analysis of projected emergency food assistance needs in FEWS NET coverage countries. The projected size of each country’s acutely food insecure population is compared to last year and the recent five-year average. Countries where external emergency food assistance needs are anticipated are identified. Projected lean season months highlighted in red indicate either an early start or an extension to the typical lean season. Additional information is provided for countries with large food insecure populations, an expectation of high severity, or where other key issues warrant additional discussion.
Key messages
In October 2026, FEWS NET expects the number of people in need of humanitarian food assistance to be highest in the countries of Sudan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Yemen, followed by South Sudan.
When food assistance needs are expressed as a percent of the total population of each respective country, FEWS NET expects the share of the population that needs humanitarian food assistance to be highest in South Sudan, where 55-60 percent of the country’s population will most likely need food assistance. The share of the country population that needs food assistance is also very high in Sudan (45-50 percent), Yemen (40-45 percent), Somalia (25-30 percent), and Haiti (25-30 percent).
Out of the projected total 120-130 million people in need across FEWS NET’s presence countries, Sudan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Yemen are each expected to contribute over 10 percent of total food assistance needs. South Sudan and Afghanistan are expected to contribute 5-10 percent of total food assistance needs.
In comparison to October 2025, FEWS NET expects the number of people in need of food assistance to be higher in Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Somalia, Chad, and Lebanon. In contrast, FEWS NET expects the number of people in need of food assistance to be lower in Yemen, Afghanistan, Mozambique, Malawi, and Venezuela. In all other countries, food assistance needs are expected to be similar to last year.