East Africa Seasonal Monitor: October 5, 2018

Northern seasonal rains forecast to typically subside and likely timely onset for October rains

KEY MESSAGES

  • The June to September seasonal rains gradually subsided in late September, marking the cessation of persistent well aboveaverage rainfall amounts across most of the northern sector, which led to widespread flooding in Sudan. However, some areas of the region experienced significant cumulative seasonal deficits, including some central areas of Ethiopia, eastern and central South Sudan, and northern and eastern Uganda.

  • Unseasonal heavy rains across Kenya’s coastal strip during the end of September caused flash flooding. Additional rainfall is forecast to continue in these coastal areas in the coming weeks, including the northeastern coastal regions of Somalia, which may lead to flash floods.

  • According to the short-term rainfall forecasts, there is an increased likelihood for the timely establishment of the October to December rainy season across Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern DRC, and parts of the eastern Horn, as the tropical rainfall system shifts southwards into equatorial East Africa.