Attachments
Key Messages
- FEWS NET estimates over 50 million people need humanitarian food assistance in the East Africa region through September, driven by intensifying conflict, localized flooding, poor macroeconomic conditions, and the long-lasting impacts of the 2020-2023 Horn of Africa drought. While late 2024 agricultural production is anticipated to somewhat alleviate food assistance needs in some areas by October, 40-50 million people will likely continue to need assistance from October to January. In the eastern Horn, La Niña conditions are expected in late 2024, likely resulting in below-average rains. If the late 2024 rainy season were to fail, then acute food insecurity outcomes would likely deteriorate further than currently projected in early 2025, given the relatively short recovery period since the historic drought.
- In Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is ongoing in the Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and possibly ongoing in nearby Abu Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps in the besieged locality of Al Fasher, North Darfur.1 Famine (IPC Phase 5) is expected to continue in these camps through at least October, and, in the absence of large-scale food assistance and an end to the intense conflict, will possibly extend into the harvest and post-harvest seasons beyond October. FEWS NET also assesses there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) across the rest of Al Fasher, in areas with high concentrations of displaced persons across Greater Darfur and South Kordofan, and in parts of West Darfur and Khartoum if conflict – coupled with bureaucratic and logistical impediments to humanitarian access – either directly isolates or indirectly prevents households from migrating to safer areas in search of food and income for a sustained period. An immediate and coordinated scale-up of multisectoral assistance is urgently required to mitigate loss of life.
- In Ethiopia, millions of people face food consumption deficits at the peak of the July-August lean season due to the impact of past and ongoing conflict, drought, and poor macroeconomic conditions. In northern Ethiopia, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will likely persist until September in areas receiving large-scale food assistance, while Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in the hard-to-reach areas. The start of meher harvest in September is expected to improve food and income access, significantly reducing the population in need of food assistance in the country. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are still expected to be widespread due to limited/loss of access to food and income from livestock and migratory labor. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to be sustained in Afar, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist until January 2025 in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, as households are yet to recover from the loss of livestock due to conflict and the 2020-2023 drought. The forecasted La Niña-induced, below-average October-December rainfall will likely reverse livestock recovery.
- In Somalia, the start of the gu harvest in July supported some temporary improvement in access to food and income. However, national gu production is expected to be significantly below average, including failed harvests in some areas due to early erratic rainfall and flooding. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will persist until September in the flood-affected riverine areas of Gedo and Middle Shabelle and several IDP settlements. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in the agropastoral areas faced with crop deficits and in parts of Addun and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones in central Somalia with low herd sizes and high debt levels due to the enduring impacts of the 2020-2023 drought. In Kenya, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue through January 2025 in the flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties. Meanwhile, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas due to enhanced access to food and income resulting from improved livestock production, availability of carry-over food stocks, and the long rains harvests amid declining food prices following average March-May rainfall.
- In South Sudan, humanitarian needs in July rose near the peak of the July-August lean season, driven by deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, soaring staple food prices, limited income-earning opportunities, protracted impacts of conflict and flooding, and high returnee burden amid shortage and disruption of humanitarian assistance. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are widespread across the country and among returnees and the displaced populations. Some households in hard-to-reach areas of Pibor and Duk of Jonglei, and among displaced persons sheltering in transit areas such as in Rubkona, Renk, and Aweil East counties, are facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in July. Additionally, FEWS NET assesses a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) from June 2024 to January 2025 in the most flood- and conflict-prone areas of north-central Unity, in other low-lying areas and the Sudd wetlands, and in parts of Upper Nile and Jonglei if households are isolated from accessing typical food and income sources, including humanitarian assistance, for a prolonged period.
- In Uganda, the below-average harvest due to erratic first season rains has resulted in limited improvement in access to food and income, and sustained Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the greater north. The consumption of green harvest has enhanced food access in the Karamoja Region, but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes remain prevalent due to inadequate access to food and income after successive years of below-average harvests. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in most refugee settlements due to below-average harvests, while Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will likely continue in some southwestern refugee settlements with higher access to cultivation land and market integration. In Burundi, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in Imbo Plains and the Northern Lowlands throughout the projection period and extend to the eastern areas during the October 2024 to January 2025 lean period, driven by below-average harvest and limited income-earning opportunities. Among refugees and asylum seekers, food consumption gaps are expected to increase in the July to September period amid limited humanitarian funding and above-average food prices.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. East Africa Key Message Update July 2024: Needs remain elevated in East Africa, with Famine ongoing in part of Al Fasher, Sudan, 2024.