Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET July 25 – July 31, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 24 Jul 2013

 Dryness worsens across Sudan, Eritrea and northwest Ethiopia.

 Abnormal dryness develops across bi-modal areas in Ghana and southern Togo.

1) A migratory locust outbreak in October-November was accelerated with the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Haruna in February, which provided favorable conditions for locust breeding throughout western Madagascar. This large-scale outbreak should subside with cooler weather in July-August.

2) A poor start of season across northwest Ethiopia, southern Eritrea and bordering areas in Sudan has begun to negatively impact cropping activities, including delaying planting. Seasonal rains to date have been significantly below-average, falling below the 10th percentile. For the next week, below-average rains are expected to continue, further increasing seasonal rainfall deficits.

3) Saturated conditions in Sierra Leone and Guinea brought on by several weeks of above-average rains are likely to continue into the next week as above-average rains are expected. Heavy rains falling on wet grounds will likely increase the chance for localized flooding.

4) An erratic distribution of rainfall since the second dekad of June has resulted in growing rainfall deficits across bi-modal areas in Ghana and southern Togo. The lack of rains has resulted in a reduction in maize yields.