Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET August 8 – August 14, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 07 Aug 2013

 Heavy and above-average rains fell in Sudan, causing flooding and infrastructure damages.

1) A poor start of the rainfall season across northwestern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, and bordering areas in Sudan has begun to negatively impact cropping activities, including planting. Above-average rains are, however, forecast during the next outlook period, which could provide some relief to dry conditions throughout the region.

2) An increase in rainfall since the late period of mid-July has led to accumulated rainfall surpluses across many areas of the far western West Africa. Heavy and above-average rains are forecast over the region during the next seven days, which increase the chance for localized flooding.

3) Since July, both suppressed and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large negative rainfall anomalies across some bimodal and unimodal areas along the Gulf of Guinea. This has led to reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and deteriorated ground conditions in west-central Nigeria. The forecast limited rains during the next week may worsen ground conditions.

4) Heavy and above-average rains since the beginning of August have caused fatalities, infrastructure damages, and displaced people in several states of Sudan, including the Khartoum, River Nile, Blue Nile, North Darfur, and Red Sea. Above-average rains are forecast to continue during the next outlook period, increasing the risks for inundation and potential waterborne disease outbreaks.