Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET August 15 – August 21, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 14 Aug 2013
  • Rainfall deficits grow along the Gulf of Guinea, while dryness persists in eastern Sudan.

1) A delayed start of the rainfall season across northwestern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, and bordering areas in Sudan has begun to negatively impact cropping activities, including planting. Heavy rains are, however, forecast during the next outlook period, which could provide some relief to dry conditions throughout the region.

2) Above-average rains since mid-July have resulted in accumulated rainfall surpluses across Guinea Conakry and Sierra Leone. Heavy rains are forecast to persist over the region during the next seven days, increasing the risks for flooding.

3) Since June, both suppressed and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large negative rainfall anomalies across some bimodal and unimodal areas along the Gulf of Guinea. This has led to reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and deteriorated ground conditions in west-central Nigeria. The forecast limited rains during the next week are likely to worsen ground conditions.

4) Heavy and above-average rains since the beginning of August have caused fatalities, infrastructure damages, and displaced people in several states of Sudan, including the Khartoum, River Nile, Blue Nile, North Darfur, El Gazeira, northern and western Kordofan, and Red Sea. The forecast above-average rains during the next week could further exacerbate ground conditions.