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CRISIS OVERVIEW
On 15 April 2023, clashes erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in multiple areas of Sudan. While multiple ceasefires have created temporary lulls in fighting, violence continues. As at 6 June, the conflict had resulted in at least 866 deaths and 6,000 injuries according to the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) (OCHA accessed 14/06/2023). Although fighting between the SAF and RSF has mainly been centred on Khartoum, insecurity has also affected urban areas along major roadways, including the east-west corridors from Kassala to West Darfur (OCHA 17/05/2023). As at 17 May, 24.7 million people were in need of humanitarian assistance, a 57% increase from the 15.8 million reported in November 2022 (OCHA 17/05/2023 and 07/11/2022). Conflict has destroyed key infrastructure, such as WASH facilities and hospitals, the capacity of which was already previously overstretched (OCHA 17/05/2023).
Alongside conflict, climate change is also affecting Sudan. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, which captures a country’s vulnerability to climate change and its readiness to improve resilience, Sudan is among the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change worldwide (ND-GAIN accessed 02/06/2023). In recent decades, Sudan has experienced rising temperatures, unpredictable seasonal rains, and more frequent droughts (USAID accessed 19/05/2023). The country also faces several environmental challenges, including deforestation and land degradation, which compound the impact of climate hazards (UNEP 07/10/2020). Available evidence suggests that climate change has also heightened competition for access to water sources, pastures, and traditional grazing lands. This has led to fresh cycles of intercommunal conflict, particularly in West Darfur (SIPRI 05/2022). According to UNEP research, approximately 40% of internal conflicts over the past six decades can be attributed to the exploitation of natural resources, including competition over scarce resources, such as fertile land and water (UNEP 04/11/2022).
Floods were the most frequent climate hazard in Sudan between 1980–2020 (WB accessed 19/05/2023). Between 2017–2021, floods affected an average of 388,600 people each year. The most significant flooding in recent years occurred in 2020, affecting more than 850,000 people and damaging 37,000 houses across all states (OCHA accessed 19/05/2023 a; OCHA 22/02/2021; Al Jazeera 25/09/2020). Between May–October 2022, heavy rains and flooding affected roughly 349,000 people, damaged over 48,250 houses, and destroyed 24,859 houses (IOM 06/10/2022; OCHA 08/12/2022). As at 31 August 2022, flooding had affected 15 out of Sudan’s 18 states (Al-Fanar 31/08/2022). The most affected states were Central Darfur, Gedaref, Kassala, South Darfur, and White Nile (OCHA 08/12/2022).
Aj Jazira, Gedaref, Kassala, Sennar, and the states bordering South Sudan, such as White Nile, are typically vulnerable to flooding. Blue Nile River flows through Blue Nile state into Aj Jazira, Khartoum, and Sennar states, and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands drives a high volume and flow of water into the river, making it prone to flooding. In the south, Kordofan and Darfur regions have seasonal rivers mainly fed by rainfall from the Nuba and Marrah Mountains, respectively, and flash flooding can occur from heavy rainfall and uneven terrain. Typically, the central and southern regions experience more annual rainfall than the rest of the country. Blue Nile had the highest annual precipitation sums among Sudanese states between 1991–2020, while Northern state had the lowest (WB accessed 16/05/2023). In 2023, above-average rainfall is expected to reoccur in some areas already affected by past floods and other shocks, which could create devastating humanitarian impacts on the affected people (ICPAC accessed 12/06/2023). Combined with current conflict dynamics, this is likely to further strain people’s coping capacities.
The rainy season typically occurs between June–September, with the rains and flooding peaking from August–September (OCHA 08/12/2022). Heavy rains often result in the Nile and its tributaries and Gash River overflowing, leading to flooding and landslides that damage property, infrastructure, and crops, compounding humanitarian needs (Al Jazeera 18/08/2022). Localised flash floods from the heavy rains are also common, particularly in areas with pre-existing poor drainage and a lack of proper water management facilities. Although the duration of localised flash floods is shorter than riverine flooding, they often cause substantial damage and disruption to areas in catchment and drainage zones, including agricultural and urban areas (UNOSAT 28/08/2016).
Drought is also a recurrent hazard in Sudan. Studies show that if current rainfall patterns persist, the Sahara is projected to advance southwards at a rate of 1.5km per year, shifting the agroclimatic zone southwards and reducing the suitability of land for agriculture in large parts of Sudan (UNEP 07/10/2020). Sudan is inherently dry, and its precipitation follows a highly seasonal pattern, with the majority of rainfall occurring within just two or three months of the year. This pronounced unevenness in rainfall distribution poses a continuous risk of both severe dry spells and prolonged droughts (JRC 17/06/2019). The most significant drought in recent years occurred in 2015, affecting most of the country, including Darfur region, North and West Kordofan, Aj Jazira, Kassala, Khartoum, Northern, River Nile, and White Nile states (FEWS NET 17/12/2015). Below-average and poorly distributed rainfall particularly affected subsistence farmers and pastoralists in Kassala, West and South Kordofan, and White Nile states (WFP 07/10/2015).