CRISIS OVERVIEW
Sudan is anticipating severe humanitarian challenges during the 2024 rainy season, influenced by conflict and environmental factors. The seasonal forecast predicts above-average rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures across southern and central states, with potential La Niña conditions enhancing the rainy season from August–September. These conditions are expected to increase risks of riverine and flash flooding, particularly affecting agricultural lands and water resources by September (WB accessed 09/04/2024; FAO 20/03/2024; ICPAC accessed 28/05/2024).
Heavy rainfall and floods pose a threat to agriculture – which supports 65% of Sudan’s population – potentially destroying land and infrastructure and worsening food insecurity for around 18 million people (ICRC 05/10/2022; FAO 20/03/2024). Stagnant water and health infrastructure damage from increased rainfall also raise the risk of vector-borne and waterborne diseases (Hussien 11/10/2020; SSHAP 19/04/2023). Flooding in 2024 could also damage schools and disrupt education for many children (OCHA 25/09/2022; UNICEF 22/12/2022).
The 2024 rainy season is anticipated to severely hamper humanitarian access and response capacity, as was the case in previous years. In 2022, floodwaters temporarily isolated regions and damaged infrastructure, hindering the transport of commercial and humanitarian goods. Critical shortages in relief supplies and logistical challenges further impeded the humanitarian response (OCHA 23/08/2022 and 25/09/2022; KII 24/04/2024). Access issues may be particularly severe in White Nile state, home to over 578,000 IDPs (UNHCR accessed 19/06/2024; MSF 01/10/2023). Humanitarian response to the rainy season and floods in Sudan has mostly been reactive. Funding constraints hinder anticipatory actions, forcing the prioritisation of the most affected populations.