As separatists step up attacks on Sri Lankan security forces in the wake of November's presidential elections that brought a hard-liner to power, many fear the government's failure to negotiate with the rebels could see the low-intensity conflict turn into a full-blown war.
By Ravi Prasad in Colombo for ISN Security Watch (09/01/06)
As two Israeli-made Dvora patrol boats sailed towards the Trincomalee naval base in Sri Lanka on Saturday, the sailors were relaxed. It was around 1 am local time and the sailors had finished their night patrol and were preparing to disembark for a rest.
Several fishing boats were in the area and the two navy boats had to maneuver carefully to avoid the small vessels. While one patrol boat moved ahead the other was still negotiating the flotilla of fishing boats when a fishing boat rammed into it, blowing it to pieces.
The two sailors aboveboard on watch had seen the smaller boat racing towards the Dvora and jumped into the sea, but the 13 sailors who were inside the patrol vessel had no escape. Other navy boats heard the explosion and rescued the two sailors who jumped into the sea.
It was the first major attack on the security forces on the eastern coast. It came almost a week after six minority Tamil students were shot dead by security forces in the city of Trincomalee, sparking protests and strikes by the minority Tamil community.
The Nidarsanam website, believed to be run by the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), claimed in a report that the bombing of the navy boat was an act of reprisal for the killing of the five Tamil students.
The LTTE has denied any involvement in the attack, while the government holds the Tigers responsible, accusing them of breaking the four-year ceasefire.
While the two sides were busy exchanging accusations, another Sri Lankan soldier was killed and two others were wounded in an attack on a foot patrol in Trincomalee itself. The soldiers had spotted an abandoned vehicle, and as they went closer to check it out, they came under fire.
Attacks on security forces have increased since Mahinda Rajapakshe won the 17 November presidential elections. Over the past month and a half, more than 115 people, including 64 soldiers, have died in attacks carried out by suspected Tamil Tiger guerrillas.
In November, the LTTE threatened to resume its armed struggle unless the government agreed to grant the Tamil minority wide political powers in the north and east.
Sri Lanka has been paralyzed for 20 years by an ethnic conflict that has left some 70,000 people dead and millions displaced. The LTTE is fighting for more autonomy and rights for minority Tamils.
Rajapakshe came to power by default, as the Tamil Tigers prevented the minority Tamils living in the north and east from voting in the elections. The opposition United National Party candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe, the architect of the four-year-old Norwegian-brokered ceasefire, lost narrowly without the Tamil vote.
While Rajapakshe took up an expected hard-line stance against the LTTE and sought the support of the chauvinist elements of the majority Sinhala community, who are opposed to any kind of concessions to the LTTE, he sailed through comfortably.
Some observers believe Rajapakshe was under the impression that the LTTE would not rock the boat since the separatists had, in effect, helped him win the election by preventing the Tamils, who overwhelmingly supported his rival Wickremesinghe, from voting.
However, the Tamil Tigers proved him very wrong, very quickly. In his "Heroes day" speech on 27 November, LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran made it clear to the new president that if he did not come up with solid political proposals to meet the aspirations of the minority Tamil community, the Tamil Tigers would resume hostilities. He set a vague deadline in his speech, saying that it would happen sometime in 2006.
Soon after that November warning, the LTTE went back on the offensive, carrying out several attacks and killing soldiers in the north and east of the country.
Fearing that retaliation would break the ceasefire, the armed forces have exercised restraint, so far, returning fire only when under attack, and only a few rebels have been killed in counterattacks.
President Rajakashe has appealed to the international community to pressure the LTTE to stop the violence. In response to his appeal, the US government issued a statement condemning the attacks.
Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, who is now visiting Washington, DC, urged the US government to take a firm stance against the Tamil Tigers.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has voiced her concern over the flare-up of violence and expressed hope that the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil Tigers would resume peace talks.
Washington plans to dispatch a senior official to the troubled tropical Indian Ocean Island soon to discuss the conflict, the department said.
"Secretary Rice reiterated the United States' hope that talks between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam on ways to strengthen the ceasefire could resume soon," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.
But these appeals have had no effect on the rebels, who continue to carry out their low-intensity war, while denying their involvement in the attacks.
On Sunday, a rattled Rajapakshe said his patience should not be mistaken for weakness and he was "duty bound" to ensure the security of the nation.
"If someone takes my patience that I have inculcated through Buddhist values as my weakness, they would be mistaken," the president was quoted by the state-run Daily News as saying. "I am duty bound to ensure the security of this country. In the same manner I am duty bound not to allow anybody to create problems in the country."
The president urged the rebels to stop thinking he was "deaf and blind".
"It is a great mistake if anyone thinks that our decisions can be altered by means of terror. The LTTE should realize that we are not deaf and blind. If they think so, the time has come for them to give up such thoughts," Rajapakshe told the gathering in the south of the island.
However, the president said he was committed to a negotiated political settlement to the ethnic conflict, which has claimed over 60,000 lives since 1972.
All hopes pinned on Norway
Analysts say the Tamil Tigers have mounted new attacks ahead of the possible peace talks in an attempt to negotiate from a position of strength.
Division within the Tigers has significantly weakened the rebels, observers say, and chipped away at claims that they were the sole representatives of the minority Tamil community. A renegade Tamil group led by "Colonel Karuna" has attacked and killed several high-profile LTTE leaders and undermined the Tamil Tigers in the country's east.
"It looks like the LTTE is trying to have a kind of intifada [a war of liberation for the Tamils] in the north and east," Dr. Pakiyasothy Saravanamuttu, executive director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, told ISN Security Watch. "The LTTE is perhaps looking at taking over Jaffna, but their intentions are not very clear."
Some observers believe that the LTTE is provoking the government to react before the visit of Norwegian special envoy Erik Solhiem, who is scheduled to arrive on 23 January in a bid to restart the peace process.
While the LTTE and the government are engaged in a low intensity war, the minority Tamil community in the north and east fears a full-scale war and wants the peace talks to begin immediately to ensure the ceasefire remains in place.
"People in Jaffna and other parts of the north and east are extremely worried over the worsening security situation," N. Vithyatharan, editor of the Jaffna-based Tamil language daily Uthayan, told ISN Security Watch. "Nobody wants bombs exploding in the north and east. If the war starts life will be difficult for the people living in these areas."
Vithyatharan, who continued to publish his newspaper from a bunker when the two sides fought pitched battles over Jaffna in 1995, said the only means to halt the hostilities was to start peace talks.
"If the talks start now, then the violence is bound to reduce. If there is a delay, the violence will go on and could snowball into a major conflict. The Tamil community is not in favor of the conflict, it wants peace and the only way out is to start negotiations," he said.
As the country is slipping slowly towards a full-blown conflict, most Sri Lankans are fervently praying for peace. Their hopes are pinned on the visit of the Norwegian envoy.
During his visit, Solhiem is expected to discuss the venue of the peace talks with the two sides. The government wants the talks in an Asian country - a request Japan has offered to oblige - but the LTTE wants peace talks in the Norwegian capital, Oslo.
"I am given to believe that Solhiem would be able to hammer out a solution about the venue of the talks," said Dr. Saravanamuttu.
Faced with daily attacks on armed forces, the government, too, seems to have softened its stand over the venue, and could agree to hold the negotiations in Oslo, observers say.
Ravi Prasad is ISN Security Watch Senior Correspondent based in Colombo. He also writes for Peace and Conflict Monitor and several other publications. He has covered conflicts and post conflict developments in Sri Lanka and the Balkans.