Attachments
SUMMARY
Sri Lanka’s high temperatures throughout the year, unique and complex hydrological regime, and exposure to extreme climate events make it highly vulnerable to climate change. Increased extreme events and natural hazards due to climate change will considerably threaten the economy and human health. In recent years, Sri Lanka has experienced a series of major crises, including the 2019 Easter Attacks and the global COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the 2022 economic crisis. These crises have affected marginalized communities’ capacity to withstand the impacts of even minor external shocks.
According to authorities’ data, Sri Lanka’s eastern provinces are highly susceptible to floods, drought, and human-animal conflict hazards. They experience high vulnerability due to the high share of low-income families, dependency on agriculture and fisheries, and few protection measures in place. Within this context, IMPACT Initiatives, in partnership with Acted, conducted an Area-based Risk Assessment (ABRA) in Mahaoya Divisional Secretary’s Divisions (DSD) in Ampara district, Eastern Province, funded by the US Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA).
The study is anchored on the Sri Lanka Disaster Management Plan 2018-2030 and the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation 2016-2025. The objective is to analyse the main hazards threatening communities within the target DSD, identifying the Grama Nilahadari Divisions (GNDs) most at risk for multiple hazards. The findings intend to assist Acted, the national Government, local authorities, humanitarian partners, and affected communities to predict better, prepare for, and respond to existing and future events through resilience and adaptation initiatives targeting the most exposed and vulnerable territories and communities.
Through local consultations, IMPACT Initiatives identified the eight most recurrent hazards in the eastern and northern provinces of Sri Lanka: drought, flood, human/animal conflict, cyclones, storms, water supply failure, explosives remnants of war (ERW), and land degradation. Local authorities and communities reported during the preliminary consultations in Mahaoya that floods, droughts, and human-elephant conflict (HEC) are the most prominent. Therefore they were selected to calculate the risk through an adapted World Risk Index Methodology, by which the risk is a multiplication of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (including susceptibility and lack of coping capacity) of all GNDs in Mahaoya.
Through the study, IMPACT identified three GNDs, namely Pollebedda, Aranthalawa, and Unuwathura Bubula as the most at risk for multiple hazards. Pollebedda presents the highest risk across all assessed hazards, Aranthalawa has a high flood risk, and Unuwathura Bubula has a medium-high risk on all three. Pollebedda and Unuwathura Bubula present higher dependency on agriculture and inland fisheries, a large share of female-headed households, and over 50% of families with daily wages between 2000 and 3000 LKR. Aranthalawa and Pollebedda present the highest flood exposure, with large affected population density and crops, built-up areas, and roads in floodprone areas.
In Poolawala, the population has the highest level of vulnerability regarding social dependency, with the highest shares of children and older people density and high femaleheaded households. Social dependency is when an individual or group relies on another individual or group for resources, support, or guidance. The GND also has the largest share of low-income families and unemployed people. The unemployment and low-income rates are social insecurity indicators for low financial capacity to prepare and recover from hazards.
Mahaoya, Iddapola, and Bogamuyaya are the least at risk of the combination of droughts, floods, and elephant attacks. Their territories have smaller flood-affected areas, and Mahaoya and Iddapola present almost no drought area. Mahaoya GND families are the least dependent on agriculture and inland fishery and present the best economic situation.
Overall, the study’s findings underscore the importance of a local approach to understanding risk and informing disaster risk reduction strategies. The specific risk profile of each GND must guide how to prioritise and customise preparedness interventions for drought management, flood control, and HEC. Stakeholders can use this assessment as a valuable tool to design targeted interventions to enhance the resilience of communities and territories in Mahaoya against single and multihazard scenarios.