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Summary
Sri Lanka’s high temperatures throughout the year, unique and complex hydrological regime, and exposure to extreme climate events make it highly vulnerable to climate change. A rise in extreme events and natural hazards due to climate change will considerably threaten Sri Lanka’s economy and human health. In recent years, Sri Lanka has experienced a series of recurrent crises, including the 2019 Easter Attacks and the global COVID-19 pandemic , followed by the 2022 economic crisis. These crises have severely affected marginalized communities’ capacity to withstand the impacts of even minor external shocks.
According to Local Authorities data, Sri Lanka’s eastern provinces are highly susceptible to floods, drought, and human-animal conflict hazards and experience high vulnerability due to the high share of low-income families and dependency on agriculture and fisheries, and few protection measures in place. Within this context, IMPACT Initiatives, in partnership with Acted, conducted an Area based Risk Assessment (ABRA) in Koralai Pattu South (Kiran) Divisional Secretary’s Divisions (DSD) in Batticaloa district, Eastern Province, funded by the US Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA).
The study is anchored on the Sri Lanka Disaster Management Plan 2018-2030 and the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation 2016-2025. The objective is to analyse the main hazards threatening communities within the target DSD, identifying the Grama Nilahadari Divisions (GNDs) most at risk for multiple hazards. The findings intend to assist Acted, the national Government, local authorities, humanitarian partners, and affected communities to better predict, prepare for, and respond to existing and future events through resilience and adaptation initiatives targeting the most exposed and vulnerable territories and communities.
Through local consultations, IMPACT identified the eight most recurrent hazards in the eastern and northern provinces of Sri Lanka: drought, flood, human/animal conflict, cyclones, storms, water supply failure, explosives remnants of war (ERW), and land degradation. The communities and local authorities reported during the preliminary consultations, floods, droughts, and human-elephant being the most prominent hazards. Therefore, they were selected to calculate the risk through an adapted World Risk Index Methodology, by which the risk is a multiplication of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (including susceptibility and lack of coping capacity) of all GNDs in Koralai Pattu South.
Through the study, IMPACT identified three GNDs, Muruthanai, Perillavely, and Vahanery, as the most at risk for multiple hazards, especially droughts and floods.
Muruthanai is the most at risk due to its high exposure, having the largest drought area in the DSD, and 50% of its crops within a flood zone. The large share of families relying on agriculture as their main livelihood and low income level increases the vulnerability of the Muruthanai population to cope with external shocks. The large number of female-headed households exacerbates Perillavely’s vulnerability to external shocks. In Vahanery, the population has the highest level of susceptibility regarding social dependency and mostly relies on agriculture and cattle-keeping livelihoods. Social dependency is when an individual or group relies on another individual or group for resources, support, or guidance.
According to the analysis, Santhiveli was identified as the most at risk of elephant attacks, along with Palayadithona and Kudimpimalai, due to a combination of deforestation, population density, and unemployment among the residents. The unemployment rate is a social insecurity indicator, that indicates the low financial capacity to prepare and recover from elephant attacks. Kiran East, Vadamunai, and Korakallimadu are the least impacted by droughts, floods, and elephant attacks. Their communities mainly rely on marine or inland fishing, and their socio-economic situation allows for higher coping capacity.
The study’s findings underscore the importance of a localised approach to understanding risk and informing disaster risk reduction strategies.
The specific risk profile of each GND must guide how to prioritize and customize preparedness interventions for drought management, flood control, and human-elephant conflict (HEC).
Stakeholders can use this assessment as a valuable tool to design targeted interventions to enhance the resilience of communities and territories in Koralai Pattu South against single and multi-hazard scenarios