By Simon Gardner
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's longest truce with the Tamil Tigers will hold despite a rash of killings the military and the rebels each blame on the other, but they must rebuild trust to avoid escalation, the chief ceasefire monitor warned.
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) accuse the military of helping a breakaway rebel faction to target and kill their cadres and have ratcheted up the rhetoric, warning that a 3-1/2-year ceasefire is on the brink of collapse.
Dozens of rebel cadres, policemen and soldiers have been killed since the truce was agreed in 2002, and some diplomats and analysts fear a silent war of attrition in the restive east, where the rebels control large areas of jungle, could spiral into all-out war.
"The ceasefire is going to hold, I am quite confident of that," Hagrup Haukland, head of the Nordic Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, said in a weekend interview at his Colombo headquarters. "We don't think war is imminent at all."
"But there's a bad need to first of all re-establish the dialogue between the parties ... regarding the implementation and the adherence to the ceasefire agreement," he added. "It worries me that there is no dialogue between the parties."
Haukland is convinced neither the government nor the rebels want to resume a conflict that has already killed more than 64,000 people on both sides of the ethnic divide.
But the government wants the ceasefire tightened up with measures to prevent hundreds of violations by the Tigers that the monitors have identified, from the recruitment of child soldiers to abductions.
TRUST KEY TO PEACE
The rebels refuse to talk to the government or the security forces, demanding instead that the state protect their political cadres from attack by paramilitaries they say are aided by the military.
The Tigers have threatened to carry arms while moving in army-controlled areas, where they are allowed under the terms of the truce -- a move that could rupture the fourth truce since war broke out in earnest in 1983.
"The longer it goes before they are on speaking terms, the higher is the risk for clashes," Haukland said. "The climate is not good between the parties at the moment."
"I think both parties are very eager to restore the confidence between themselves. The hindrance for having a dialogue is having those armed elements operating in the east."
The Tigers closed their political offices in the east in July as attacks escalated, and pulled back their cadres. That has halted the attacks, but also undermines the ceasefire agreement.
"One of the cornerstones in the ceasefire agreement is that the LTTE should have the possibility to do political work in the north and the east and also have the freedom of movement of the cadres," Haukland said. "If that cornerstone is removed, then it is jeopardy."
The government has offered to accommodate rebel demands for special safety measures while they are escorted between areas of terrain that they control.
But the Tigers say the measures don't go far enough.
They also want the international community to give them tsunami aid directly, after the Supreme Court blocked a government pact to share $3 billion worth of donor relief -- which diplomats say is a non-starter.
Any resumption of stalled peace talks aimed at cementing permanent peace after a conflict that has straight-jacketed Sri Lanka's $20 billion economy is likely months off at best. But Haukland remains upbeat.
"In general terms, the ceasefire violations have decreased. That's a good sign, a positive sign," he said. "There have been no clashes between the Sri Lankan armed forces and the LTTE, none at all, and that's good. But the risk is there all the time."