Background
The war in Ukraine has major implications for food security and diets across the world, given both countries’ key roles in global food markets and Russia’s prominence in global energy trade. The resulting global food and economic crisis risks heightening inequalities and vulnerabilities in a world still confronting the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, food system resilience is crucial to maintain or adapt its functions in the face of shocks, and ultimately for system sustainability. Through a series of key indicators, this brief describes how the food system has been affected by this ongoing crisis and provides an overview of its resilience and potential opportunities for building resilience further.
HOW HAS SRI LANKA BEEN EXPOSED TO SHOCKS SINCE 2020?
In the last 3 years, Sri Lanka has faced shocks that have affected the food system and its resilience in various ways. Like the rest of the world, Sri Lanka was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. To minimize COVID-19 spread, the government first adopted a “zero-COVID” approach and rapidly implemented strict containment strategies such as school closure, restrictions of movements (lockdown, travel restrictions) and public gatherings among others, which can impact various domains of the food system (e.g., supply chain, consumer environment, consumer behaviors). After this initial phase, containment measures were adapted based on transmission levels. Following a similar timeline, the country also adopted supportive economic policies, such as income support for the population (e.g., expansion of existing social assistance schemes, temporary cash assistance to selfemployed workers) (Figure 1).
The Sri Lankan currency (Sri Lankan Rupee, LKR) exchange rate – relative to the US dollar (USD) – steadily but moderately depreciated during the pre-crisis period (from 113 in 2010 to 179 LKR per USD in 2019). This trend did not change the first two years of the current crisis (2020, 2021). In 2022 however, depreciation of LKR accentuated by 58% to reach 315 LKR per USD, the highest level observed within the reporting period (Figure 2). The weakening of LKR in 2022 was attributed to the depletion of reserves and unsustainable levels of debt. These issues originated from significant fiscal imbalances, which were further exacerbated by substantial tax cuts and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Besides shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Sri Lanka is also prone to numerous natural hazards, such as floods, landslides, cyclones, and droughts. The country experienced major floods in 2011 and 2014 as well as severe droughts that affected the country in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2017 (Figure 3). Due to a combination of political, geographic, and social factors, Sri Lanka is recognized as vulnerable to climate change impacts and is ranked 104th out of 185 countries in the 2021 ND-GAIN Index. As mentioned in a 2021 report, the frequency and/or intensity of extreme events are expected to rise with climate change, potentially exacerbating vulnerabilities and impacting on people food security, especially in rural households.