Attachments
The annual renewal of the UN arms embargo on South Sudan comes up for a vote in May. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar warns that ending the mandate entirely would risk fuelling a return to civil war in the country.
Analyst, UN Advocacy and Research
What is happening?
In late May, the UN Security Council will vote on whether to renew the UN arms embargo on South Sudan for twelve months. The vote comes as the country teeters on the edge of another civil war. Prior to the outbreak of fighting in March in Nasir, a town in Upper Nile state, the prospect of mustering the minimum nine votes on the Council needed to extend the embargo, which has helped limit imports of heavy weapons, appeared slim. The South Sudanese government, which argues that UN sanctions hamper its efforts to maintain security, had convinced a growing number of Council members to vote to end the restriction. But the risk of a return to all-out war – coupled with signals from the new U.S. administration that it wants the embargo to survive – has left the vote’s outcome in doubt.
UN sanctions were first imposed on South Sudan in 2015, during its post-independence civil war between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and others following Vice President Riek Machar, whom Kiir accused of attempting a coup d’état in 2013. The Security Council placed asset freezes and travel bans on senior military officers from both sides. It was slower to agree to a full-fledged arms embargo, in part because of opposition from Chinese and Russian representatives, who argued it would be counterproductive to attempts to reach a lasting peace agreement. In 2018, during President Donald Trump’s first administration, the U.S. made a successful push for a sweeping embargo covering weapons, military vehicles, training and other forms of assistance to the entirety of South Sudan. This action followed continued violations of a ceasefire agreement between the sides. While the Council softened the ban in 2022, adding an exemption for non-lethal military equipment in a show of support for the 2018 peace agreement between Kiir and Machar that ended the civil war, the embargo’s main elements have remained in place.
The fragile 2018 peace arrangement, however, broke down in March as armed conflict reignited. Kiir’s restructuring of the national security apparatus, combined with fears over his succession (his health appears to be in decline) rankled both allies and opponents. The state’s economic woes compounded these tensions: South Sudan has lost most of its state revenue after its largest oil pipeline, which runs through war-torn Sudan, fell into disrepair. Uganda has bolstered Kiir’s position by sending troops and warplanes in violation of the arms embargo, helping government forces recapture Nasir. But it is likely that more violence is on the way. Fighting has also spread around the capital Juba, including in Morobo, Lainya and Kajo Keji counties in Central Equatoria state, as well as Mundri East county in Western Equatoria state. As the fighting gathers steam, all sides are likely to intensify their search abroad for weaponry.