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HIGHLIGHTS
- The 2023 net cereal production in the traditional smallholder sector, after standardized deduction of post-harvest losses and seed use, is estimated at 1 014 000 tonnes, about 8 percent above the 2022 output and 20 percent above the average of the previous five years.
- The cereal harvested area in 2023 is estimated at 1 145 400 hectares, about 6 and 18 percent, respectively, above the 2022 level and the average of the previous five years, as security improvements prompted some displaced households to return to their places of origin and engage in agricultural activities.
- The national cereal yield in 2023 is estimated at 1.1 tonnes/hectare, about 2 percent higher than in 2022 and the five-year average, due to overall favourable weather conditions and less extensive flooding compared with recent years.
- With a projected population of about 12.9 million in mid-2024, the overall cereal production deficit in the 2024 marketing year (January/December) is estimated at 388 250 tonnes, about 9 and 20 percent, respectively, below the deficit estimated for 2023 and the 2019–2023 average deficit.
- In 2023, pests and diseases were within the normal range and had a limited impact on crop performance, while different species of weeds continued to cause significant crop losses.
- The availability of pasture and water for livestock was generally adequate in 2023, benefiting animal body conditions.
- Prices of sorghum, maize and wheat, already at high levels, continued to increase in 2023, reaching new record highs, mainly as a result of the depreciation of the national currency and high fuel prices raising production costs.
- According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis,i conducted in September/October 2023, around 7.10 million people (about 56 percent of the population) are projected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or higher levels of acute food insecurity during the lean season between April and July 2024.
- This figure includes about 79 000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), mainly located in Pibor County in the Greater Pibor Administrative Area and in Aweil East County in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State. About 28 000 returnees from the Sudan spread across the country are also expected to be in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
- During the same period, about 2.34 million people are expected to be in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), located in 38 counties, mainly in Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Lakes states.
- Acute food insecurity continues to be driven by multiple, often overlapping factors, including climate-related shocks (floods and dry spells), insecurity (subnational and localized violence), internal displacement, returnee influx and macroeconomic challenges (hight inflation, exchange rate depreciation). Limited access to basic services and cumulative effects of a prolonged period of asset depletion continue to erode households’ coping capacities.