Attachments
Summary
• During the first phase of the 2025 rainfall season, rainfall deficits dominated across most of the country. In the northern areas this is of little concern as the growing season is still starting in earnest, but in the main producing areas of the Greenbelt (Western and Central Equatoria), some moderate impacts on crops may worsen if rains do not improve soon.
• A number of seasonal forecasts indicate a high likelihood of wetter than average conditions throughout the core rainfall season (July-September) and beyond. While leading to good conditions for crop development, excessive local rainfall worsens flood conditions that are expected in the second half of 2025. Wetter than average conditions are also forecast over the Great Lakes catchments in mid-2025 – this is the driest phase of the year in these regions and hence no major effect on lake levels is expected.
• Lake levels remain at historically high or near record levels. The extent of flooding in the Sudd main wetland area and in Upper Nile is still declining towards the seasonal minimum. However, the current extent is the highest ever recorded, which means that the baseline for the 2025 flood is very high.
• We expect a major flooding event in South Sudan during the second half of 2025. The 2025 flood may reach extents similar to 2024, but a larger event cannot be excluded since:
• The seasonal flood extent baseline (seasonal minimum) is likely to be the highest ever.
• Above average rainfall in-country and reduced evaporation losses will contribute to exacerbate the flood extent • White Nile river levels along the Sudd are above the 2020-2024 average and the previous year’s levels • In terms of timing, the most likely scenario for the evolution of the 2025 flooding is as follows:
• The flood extent should reach its seasonal minimum soon and start increasing thereafter, reaching a maximum during October-December (the seasonal flood maximum)