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What happened, where and when?
The Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) which started on 15th April affected densely populated states and towns in Sudan, with an unprecedent displacement crisis inside and outside Sudan in bordering countries. For the first days of the conflict, majority of residents remained stranded as they were unable to flee to safer areas, due to continuous fighting, lack of financial means or simply attempting to maintain their property, assets, and livelihoods or security. As a result, migration of the Sudanese population willing to flee has been erratic over the past few days, depending on the course of the conflict in the different affected states in Sudan. However, since the last week of April, displacement has been recorded in the thousands in South Sudan as well as in other countries.
South Sudan has seen over 32,881 arrivals registered by UNHCR and IOM as of 3rd May 2023. Current preliminary data confirmed already returnees and refugees in Upper Nile in Aweil, especially Majokyithiou, Abyei, Bentiu at Rotriak and in Renk areas. Arrivals are recorded daily and the call for calm agreed on 6th May is expected to increase the number of people fleeing to South Sudan in the coming days/weeks. The forecasted scenario of more than 50,000 arrivals in coming days is adding stress to the humanitarian context in Upper Nile and other potential historical entry points in the sub-regional dynamic.
Scope and Scale
The Sudanese displacement crisis has gradually affected all bordering countries. On 2nd May, the reported data from Red Cross Red Crescent Societies’ was stating that at least 150,000 people had managed to escape to safer areas inside Sudan and across borders countries, South Sudan being the most affected neighboring countries with 27,275 people displaced on 2nd May (MDRSD033EA) verses 32,881 people on 3rd May as reported by UNHCR.
South Sudan shares large borders with Sudan constituting some of the relatively easy access for the populations fleeing from the affected states to the Southern areas knowing that the 18 days fights have mainly taken place in Khartoum, Northern State, North Kordofan, North Darfur, West Darfur, South Darfur, Blue Nile. All of these areas being either direct borders or one of the nearest compared to other borders. This geographical relation with Sudan, the liaison through the Nile and the liaison with other neighboring countries like CAR and Ethiopia are making South Sudan the country with the highest number of arrivals as of 3 May. This also implies possibilities to count group of non-Sudanese refugees with people transiting to reach Central African Republic (CAR) and Ethiopia or willing to go back to Sudan in other Southern safer villages.
The number of refugees and South Sudanese returnees is expected to increase significantly in the coming weeks. Based on the daily average 3,000 registrations of refugees and returnees, the Humanitarian coordination team in South Sudan projects if the situation continues, more than 240,000 people (180,000 returnees and 60,000 refugees) will have crossed the border into South Sudan by end of May 2023. Overall, women and girls make up 54% of new arrivals, while men and boys 46%. More than 53% of new arrivals are below the age of eighteen, while 9% of new arrivals are older than sixty. The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen as more people flee the fighting in Sudan, with several thousand individuals, mainly returnees and refugees, crossing over to South Sudanese border areas. People arrive at their destinations physically and psychologically exhausted, sometimes severely injured, without food, water, or shelter, and with no means to cover the cost of basic necessities. There have been 5,000 people injured since the start of the conflict and more than 400 deaths.
Despite efforts by IOM and UNHCR at the border areas to keep track of the people entering South Sudan who are in dire need of assistance, many others might be using unofficial border crossing point to South Sudan. There is fear that the situation is likely to exacerbate the worrying humanitarian situation where an estimated 9.4 million people in South Sudan, including 2.2 million women, 4.9 million children and 337,000 refugees, are projected to need humanitarian assistance and protection services as per the South Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan 2023.
The displacement crisis dynamic already existing in the South Sudan and Sudan bordering provinces and the complex humanitarian situation in the North, including Upper Nile is making the situation more pressing. The massive arrivals could hardly be absorbed by the country. According to WFP, more than half of the population from these areas already rely on humanitarian aid with huge needs resulting from consecutive crisis, historical migration crisis in Upper Nile, security, climate consequences and precariousness facilities etc. The context is fragile and volatile security is an important parameter that adds to the severity of this crisis for both returnees, refugees and host communities.
If the above situation and likely scenario is reached as per projection, the NS will prepare to adjust its response strategy through an operations update.