Attachments
HIGHLIGHTS
• Currency Exchange Rate: In September 2018, the average exchange rate in the parallel market in Juba was SSP 215, compared to the highest ever of SSP 310 in June 2018. The rate in the parallel market remained stable from August but depreciated by 18 percent compared to September 2017. The divergence of the parallel market to the official rate in Juba narrowed to 43 percent in September, down from 46 percent in August and 122 percent in June.
• Grain Prices: From July 2018, the retail prices of staple cereal have started to decrease in most markets, and this downward trend has continued in September. This decrease in staple prices is associated with the currency appreciation, as well as the decrease in consumer demand with the harvest season and an increase in commodity supply to the markets at the beginning of dry season.
• Subsidized food: Government has continued the sale of food at subsidized prices at first come first served basis to consumers in Juba town. The retail prices of sugar, maize flour, red beans, wheat flour, rice and vegetable oil at subsidized shops were lower than market prices by 29 to 57 percent.
• Fuel Prices: The price of diesel decreased in most of the markets, but the price remained the same in a quarter of monitored markets. The appreciation of local currency, and the Government policy for decontrolling prices and allowing fuel stations free importation is believed to have eased fuel availability and drop in prices. In Juba, the diesel price was at its lowest at SSP 190 per liter, (below one-dollar exchange rate in the parallel market) from the peak in July 2018. The low diesel prices and easy availability is expected to positively impact the transport costs.
• Terms of Trade: The purchasing power of livestock dependent households improved in Aweil, Wau, Yida, Torit, and Kapoeta, attributed to the decreases in cereal prices. The TOT in September was about 50 percent higher than the corresponding month of last year. In September, one average goat fetched 210 kilograms sorghum, and the lowest was in Wau at 46 kilograms of sorghum.
• Outlook: The signing of peace agreement followed by South Sudan Peace Celebration and the seasonal improvements in the road access, coupled with increased availability of food from own production among farming households and continued distribution of food assistance are likely to lead to a marginal decrease in the price of staple food in the coming months.