The severity of acute food insecurity remains high in December 2024. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in 14 counties due to the impact of the deteriorating economy, floods, high returnee and refugee burden, and ongoing conflict disrupting livelihoods and assistance deliveries. Of increasing concern is Malakal, where a high share of the population is likely facing extreme food consumption gaps, indicative of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), due to limited availability of and access to food and income sources, coupled with deteriorating water, health, and sanitation (WASH) conditions amid high returnee burden and surging cholera cases. Some households are also likely facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Abyei Administrative Area, as well as among returnees and refugees in transit and in other areas with a high burden of returnees including Renk of Upper Nile and Rubkona of Unity. Humanitarian assistance remains a key source of food for millions of flood-affected and displaced, mitigating outcomes to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in 8 counties in Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile states in December. Sustained and scaled-up multi-sectoral action is needed to prevent further deterioration and to save lives.
As of the end of December, nearly 970,000 people have officially crossed into South Sudan due to escalation of hostilities in the Sudanese states bordering South Sudan. According to official counts, weekly crossings surged in the first two weeks of December to between 15,000 – 25,000 new arrivals per week, over half of whom were Sudanese refugees. UNHCR has further warned of massive unofficial crossings potentially more than doubling the number of total arrivals. For example, in Upper Nile, headcounts begun in mid-December found over 52,000 people arriving via unofficial border crossings compared to just over 30,000 via the official Joda border crossing.
This rising influx of people fleeing Sudan and the deplorable WASH conditions, widespread open defecation, and insufficient health facilities in areas of transit are contributing to the rapid spread of cholera in South Sudan. As of December 22, UNICEF reported cumulative cases reached over 9,100 cases, nearly double that recorded by WHO as of December 14 (~4,800 cases). Cases have been reported in 28 counties across 7 states with the heaviest Burden in Rubkona, Juba, and Malakal. Multisectoral responses are underway, with US$8 million released from the South Sudan Humanitarian Fund targeting six priority locations with significant population movements and limited access to critical health and sanitation services. These include Renk, Malakal, and Maban of Upper Nile; Aweil East of Northern Bahr el Ghazal; and Rubkona and Pariang of Unity.
Incidents of civilian attacks, cattle raids, and road ambushes are prevalent as the dry season sets in, exacerbated by worsening economic pressure on households. Greater Tonj of Warrap remains a conflict hotspot in December. On December 8, violence between two clans in Wunlit Payam of Tonj East resulted in over 20 fatalities and more than 40 injuries. As a result, WFP operations in Tonj East remain suspended. In Tonj North, numerous attacks were reported through mid-December including killings of civilians in Rualbet Payam and an SSPDF soldier in Alabek Payam. In Jonglei and Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA), retaliatory attacks occurred between Lou Nuer, Gawaar Nuer, and Dinka communities against the Murle in mid-December, sparking fears of potential large-scale attacks during the dry season that would impact negatively on assistance delivery, trade flows, and household ability to engage in wild food gathering.
The overall security situation in Tambura of Western Equatoria has further deteriorated in December, with rampant gun shootings in the market, killing of civilians and clashes between unknown armed youth groups such as the clashes along Tambura-Source Yubu Road in mid-December, increasing the likelihood of an escalation of violence between the Azande and Balanda communities. UNMISS reported 13 deaths, and 62 houses burnt in December, with many households fearing for their lives and unable to engage in livelihood activities. This has prompted additional deployment of a battalion-sized force to restore law and order, according to a spokesperson for the SSPDF.
The macro-economic conditions have remained extremely poor, given the ongoing economic slowdown, sharp exchange rate depreciation, high inflation, and higher spending needs against the backdrop of large fiscal revenue losses since mid-February. The macro-economic situation has further worsened by the spillovers from the conflict in Sudan, including refugee and returnee inflows and damages to an oil pipeline, that increased assistance needs and competition over the available basic services. As of mid-December, the official and parallel exchange rates are trading at 3,908 and 5,000 South Sudanese pounds (SSP) to the US dollar, respectively, an increase of 260 and 347 percent over the same time last year and 146 percent and 60 percent six months ago (June 2024) which further signifies growing economic instability.
Harvesting of sorghum crops is nearly complete in most of the unimodal and bimodal areas in South Sudan, with the exception of long-term sorghum expected to be completed in late December and January. Severe flooding, pest infestations, and prolonged dry spells have negatively impacted on the overall crop production prospects in some states and counties, likely leading to below average harvests in the most severely affected areas. Based on FEWS NET’s monitoring, crop harvests in 2024 are likely to be similar to last year and the five-year average given some farmers harvested before flood impact and planted in less risky flood-prone areas. However, harvests are likely to be significantly below average in severely flood-affected areas. The FAO’s Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) is currently underway and will further inform overall national crop production prospects in 2024 once released in the second quarter of 2025.
According to UNOSAT’s satellite analysis of flooded areas for the period December 14-18, a total of about 38,000 km² of lands appear to be affected with flood waters, with about 655,000 people potentially exposed or living close to flooded areas. This reflects relative persistence of flood waters since November, though a decline since peaks in October. The Sudd wetlands of South Sudan in particular remain inundated to-date, and the pace of recession is slow. Additionally, heavy rains in Ethiopia plus high river water levels have resulted in some renewed flooding in the Sobat River basin.
WFP continues to respond to the needs of the new arrivals by providing fortified biscuits, general food distributions (GFD), asset creation and livelihood and cash-based assistance. As of mid-December, WFP had reached 1.3 million flood-affected people with 19,328 MT of food and USD 2.8 million cash-based transfers across Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and GPAA. Assistance for IDPs and refugees is also ongoing. In Malakal, WFP has reached over 9,000 internally displaced persons with GFD by mid-December. WFP provided food assistance to over 150,000 refugees as of mid-December in various refugee hosting areas (Aweil, Juba, Yambio, Yida, and Maban). However, assistance will scale down as planned in December and January, before slowly ramping up in March and April under the 2025 lean season response.
While not the most likely scenario, there remains a credible risk through January 2025 that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur if severe flooding combined with conflict dynamics isolates households from accessing typical food and income sources, as well as emergency food assistance, for a prolonged period of time. Moreover, the already high acute malnutrition levels are expected to remain within the range of Critical (15-29.9 percent) due to ongoing diseases outbreaks such as cholera, especially in areas with a high burden of returnees, persistent flood waters, and poor WASH conditions.1 In a scenario in which households are isolated from food, it is anticipated that worsening hunger would quickly lead to the further escalation of acute malnutrition and mortality levels. The risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) is highest in flood- and conflict-prone areas in north-central Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei, as well as other low-lying areas and within the Sudd wetlands, particularly those with a high burden of returnees and refugees. Between February and May 2025, FEWS NET assesses that the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) will decline as flood waters recede and household, commercial, and humanitarian mobility improves.
In September 2024, the IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) technical working group assessed that acute malnutrition levels in Baliet of Upper Nile State would deteriorate from Critical (15-29.9 percent) between October and March 2024 to Extremely Critical (≥30 percent) between April and July 2025. The main drivers of acute malnutrition include elevated morbidity associated with chronic and communicable diseases and poor access to health services. On the basis that sustained access to livestock products, fish and wild foods, and markets is mitigating the size of household food consumption deficits, the IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) technical working group assessed the area to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the near-term. The area is projected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between April and July 2025 in anticipation of declining food availability and access, but the food consumption thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) are not expected to be surpassed in either the most likely or the alternative scenario.
