South Sudan Key Message Update: Additional counties likely face Emergency and risk of Famine as conflict escalates, January 2026

Key Messages

• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expanding in January due to escalating conflict, particularly in northern Jonglei and Upper Nile. Near-daily clashes between government and opposition forces are driving large-scale displacement, disrupting markets and trade flows, reducing household access to local food sources, and obstructing humanitarian access, including the suspension of food assistance deliveries. The deteriorating security situation is compounding the effects of a worsening economy and high food prices, high presence of returnees and refugees, and long-term erosion of coping capacity following years of conflict and extensive flooding.
• Between February and May, the number of counties in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are expected to more than double. The areas ofhighest concern are in southern Upper Nile (Nasir, Ulang, Longochuk, and Panyikang); north-central Jonglei (Fangak, Canal/Pigi, Nyirol, Uror, Duk, Ayod, and Akobo); and central Unity (Panyijiar, Leer). In these areas, the share of population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to increase, with some households expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) by May, including in inaccessible parts of Nasir and Fangak and among the recently displaced.
• FEWS NET assesses that the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) has expanded to additional areas of north-central Jonglei and Upper Nile, encompassing Nasir, Ulang, Ayod, Duk, Nyirol, Uror, Akobo, and Fangak. These areas are already experiencing high levels of hunger and acute malnutrition, with several (Duk, Ulang, and Nasir) projected to surpass Extremely Critical levels of acute malnutrition, particularly as cholera outbreaks re-emerge. If conflict escalates such that it isolates populations and prevents access to local food sources and humanitarian assistance for a prolonged period of time, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur.
• Conflict has escalated considerably across South Sudan since late December 2025. In Upper Nile and Jonglei, clashes between the South Sudan’s Peoples Defense Forces (SSPDF) and opposition forces allied under the Sudan People’s Liberation Alliance-in Opposition (SPLM-IO) in Uror, Nyirol, Akobo, Duk, Ayod, and Canal/Pigi have displaced at least 230,000 people to date. Thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) are arriving in areas with minimal access to services and extremely poor water, sanitation, and health facilities, and are facing a high risk of disease. In Duk, over 900 cases of cholera have already been reported due to the IDP influx. IDPs also face the continued risk of repeated violence and re-displacement.
• The conflict in Upper Nile and Jonglei has severely disrupted humanitarian access and the ability to deliver assistance. Since late December, the government declared a no-fly zone over northern Jonglei and has issued several orders for humanitarians and civilians to evacuate ahead of planned offensives in Nyirol, Uror, and Akobo. Humanitarian and commercial movements along portions of the White Nile River and the Sobat River have been suspended, and there have been increasing reports of looting, seizure of, and attacks on humanitarian assets, further obstructing humanitarian work. Amid the deteriorating conditions, WFP temporarily paused most air and riverine deliveries in the area. Despite increasing international pressure for a resolution and re-establishment of humanitarian access, clashes will likely continue through at least May.
• Tensions also spilled over into open clashes between SSPDF and groups aligned with SPLA-IO in parts of Unity and in Greater Equatoria, while intercommunal fighting is continuing in parts of Warrap and Lakes. In Unity, clashes in early January in Rubkona, Guit, and Leer displaced an estimated 48,700 people and disrupted the humanitarian response. Sporadic clashes also occurred in parts of Greater Equatoria, including in Kapoeta East and Budi (Eastern Equatoria), Nagero (Western Equatoria), and Panyume of Morobo (Central Equatoria). Such clashes are likely to continue disrupting trade flows and discourage the return of refugees through May. Meanwhile, counter-cattle raiding and retaliatory violence in Warrap (Gogrial East and Twic) and Lakes (Cueibet) resulted in the deaths of more than 50 people and the looting of 5,000 heads of cattle, disrupting livelihoods and local markets. Intercommunal fighting in Maper of Rumbek North of Lakes is also likely to threaten livelihoods in the short term.
• In addition to growing internal displacement (more than 2 million internally displaced), the number of returnees and refugees arriving from Sudan continues to grow steadily. Between November and December 2025, over 44,000 people crossed into South Sudan, averaging around 700 per day. As of late January, nearly 11,000 additional people have arrived, bringing the total arrivals to over 1.3 million. Upper Nile, Unity, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal continue to host the highest shares of refugees and returnees. The flow of returnees and refugees is expected to continue in 2026, though fewer South Sudanese returnees are expected to arrive: the UN High Commissioner for Refugees is projecting the arrival of approximately 124,000 new refugees (compared to 133,000 in 2025 and 208,000 in 2024). The high numbers of IDPs and refugees are straining access to scarce resources and basic services, driving the high severity of acute food insecurity in northern counties.
• Livestock body conditions are fair to poor across many pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones due to declining water and pasture availability. Of particular concern are agropastoral areas in much of Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, and Terekeka (Central Equatoria), where pasture conditions are atypically poor and many monitored waterpoints are at Alert or Near-Dry status atypically early. Cueibet and Wulu (Lakes), Jur River (Western Bahr el Ghazal), and northeastern Upper Nile are also likely experiencing atypically early pasture drying, though water points are generally at Watch status currently. In the pastoral areas of Greater Pibor Administrative Area and the Kapoetas of Eastern Equatoria, key informants report livestock conditions are generally poor amid mixed pasture and water availability. Insecurity and cattle-raiding are expected to further constrain pasture and water access in the most severely conflict-affected areas of Jonglei, southeastern Upper Nile, Warrap, and Kapoeta East. As a result, the availability of livestock products for consumption and income from livestock sales are likely deteriorating to atypically low levels.
• Ongoing conflict is also disrupting market and trade flows, driving low market supplies and high staple food prices. While markets in calmer and more productive areas of the country have experienced seasonal price declines since the peak of the lean season (August-December), some markets – particularly in Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Unity – began to show upward trends in December. In these markets, the price of the minimum expenditure food basket remains high, diverging most steeply from the national median price. Overall, the cost of the food basket is on average 40 percent higher than last year due largely to sustained macroeconomic deterioration, with increases of up to 75 percent over last year in some markets.
• Humanitarian access remains critically disrupted by conflict and insecurity as of January. Between September and December, WFP implemented the Famine Prevention Response in seven priority counties, reaching nearly 245,000 people (out of the targeted 381,400). At the county level, however, access was mixed: less than 20 percent of the population was reached on average over the four months of response in Panyikang, Nasir, Canal/Pigi, and Longochuk. Achievement was sustained most reliably in Ulang (more than 20 percent reached, on average) and in Fangak (35 percent reached). WFP is transitioning to implementation of the Integrated Emergency Response (food and nutrition assistance) in five counties – Canal/Pigi, Fangak, Duk, Nasir, and Ulang – aiming to provide about 326,000 beneficiaries with 70 percent rations on a monthly basis between January and May 2026. However, distributions remain paused in January due to insecurity and are likely to be severely disrupted through May.