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Overview
The acute food insecurity and malnutrition situation in South Sudan is deteriorating as a result of the economic crisis, repeated climatic shocks – primarily widespread flooding – and conflict and insecurity. The inflow of returnees and refugees fleeing the conflict in Sudan is exacerbating the situation – putting additional pressure on an already fragile country.
Between September and November 2024, an estimated 6.3 million people (47 percent of the population analysed) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Of this total, 1.71 million people are facing critical levels of acute food insecurity – classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and a further 41,000 people are facing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity or IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). The population in Phase 5 (Catastrophe) includes 10,000 people in Malakal county (Upper Nile State) and an estimated 31,000 South Sudanese returnees who have fled Sudan because of the ongoing conflict. Compared to the same period last year, this indicates an increase of approximately 500,000 people in Phase 3 or above.
In the harvest/post-harvest projection period of December 2024 to March 2025, an estimated 6.1 million people (45 percent of the population analysed) will likely experience IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Of this total, 1.71 million people are projected to be in Phase 4 and 31,000 South Sudanese returnees will likely experience Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
In the second projection period of April to July 2025, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate with the arrival of the lean season. It is likely that an estimated 7.69 million people (57 percent of the population analysed) will be in Phase 3 or above. This will include 2.53 million people likely to be in Phase 4 and 63,000 people likely to be in Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
The nutrition situation has also deteriorated, with an estimated 2.1 million children aged 6-59 months suffering or expected to suffer elevated levels of acute malnutrition between July 2024 and June 2025, including 650,000 cases of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). About 1.11 million pregnant or breastfeeding women (PBW) are also suffering or expected to suffer elevated levels of acute malnutrition in the same period. An estimated 67 percent of the acute malnutrition burden is concentrated in the five states of Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Upper Nile, Unity and Warrap.
In the current analysis period (July to September 2024), 53 counties are classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 or above (Serious or worse). During the post-harvest period of October 2024 to March 2025, the acute malnutrition situation is expected to deteriorate in 13 counties, while improvement in acute malnutrition is expected in only four counties. The AMN classification in 76 counties is projected to remain the same in the post-harvest projection period.
During the lean season (April to June 2025), the severity of acute malnutrition is expected to deteriorate in 62 counties, remain similar in 16 counties and improve in two counties. The situation in Baliet County of Upper Nile State is projected to deteriorate from Phase 4 to IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical) because of elevated morbidity and poor access to health services.