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Overview
The acute food insecurity in South Sudan remains worrying with the latest data showing that 5.83 million people (46.3 percentage of the population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). An estimated 35,000 people are in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the Duk (3,000) and Nyirol (3,000) counties of Jonglei State; and the Rubkona County (15,000) of Unity State, while 14,000 South Sudanese returnees who fled the ongoing conflict in Sudan are also classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
A further 1.64 million people are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
The most food insecure states between September and November 2023 with more than 50 percent of their populations facing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) are Jonglei State (61.3 percent), Unity State (57.9 percent), Upper Nile State (56.1 percent) and Lakes State (52.8 percent).
In the first projection period of December 2023 to March 2024 (harvest/ post-harvest season), the situation is projected to improve marginally as a result of seasonal availability of harvets. An estimated 5.79 million people (45.8 percent of the population) are projected to face IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), including 25,000 people likely to be in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 1.71 million people likely to be in Phase 4.
In the lean season projection period of April to July 2024, the food security situation will deteriorate and an estimated 7.1 million people (56.3 percent of the population) will be severely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above). 79,000 people are likely to be in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) while an estimated 2.34 million people are likely to be in Phase 4 (Emergency).
The most food insecure populations are in locations that have been significantly affected by frequent climate-related shocks (flooding and dry spells), the economic crisis (currency depreciation and high food prices), conflict and insecurity – including the spillover effects of the conflict in Sudan – causing forced displacement, low agricultural production and a reduction in humanitarian assistance.
Between July 2023 and June 2024, an estimated 1.65 million children between 6-59 months are expected to suffer acute malnutrition including 480,000 million children expected to suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 1.17 million expected to suffer Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). 870,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in this period. An estimated 72 percent of the acute malnutrition burden is concentrated in the five states of Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Upper Nile, Unity and Warrap.
As for the severity of the situation, between July and September 2023, 46 counties are classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), 15 counties in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious), 10 counties in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert) and 9 in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable). During the post-harvest period of October 2023 to March 2024, the AMN situation is expected to remain the same. Deterioration in 66 counties is expected during the lean season period of April to June 2024.