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Overview
The impact of conflict and civil insecurity is worsening food insecurity in South Sudan, with an estimated 7.7 million people in South Sudan (57 percent of the population) facing high levels of acute food insecurity IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) during the lean season projection period of April-July 2025. Among them, about 83,000 people (almost 1 percent of the population analysed) are expected to experience IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of acute food insecurity in several parts of the country: 12,000 people in Pibor County of Greater Pibor Administrative Area; 15,000 people in Luakpiny/Nasir; 7,000 people in Ulang; and 10,000 people in Malakal counties of Upper Nile State. This also includes 39,000 people returning to South Sudan after fleeing the conflict in Sudan. Urgent and immediate action is needed for this population, including large-scale and multi-sectoral response and the protection of humanitarian access to prevent the total collapse of livelihoods, increased starvation, death and possible deterioration into a full-blown Famine. The IPC findings also reveal that around 2.4 million people (18 percent of the population analysed) are facing IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) levels of acute food insecurity and nearly 5.2 million people (38 percent of the population analysed) are facing IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of acute food insecurity. These populations require urgent response action to address their food needs and to protect and save lives and livelihoods.
Food insecurity in South Sudan is mainly driven by conflict and civil insecurity which has forced people to leave their homes, disrupted markets and people’s livelihood activities, and hindered the delivery of multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance. Other factors driving the situation include the ongoing economic crisis characterised by local currency depreciation, high food prices, and eroding household purchasing power. Furthermore, climatic shocks particularly flooding are negatively impacting agricultural production, disrupting market functionality, and destroying infrastructure such as roads. The food insecurity situation is compounded by shrinking humanitarian resources and access constraints on the delivery of humanitarian assistance. The current levels of humanitarian food security assistance remain largely insufficient to meet the needs and demands of people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) – and fall short even in meeting those of people in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) and IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe), despite reprioritisation efforts to areas previously identified as facing the highest severity of food insecurity.
Nutrition response has been severely affected by financial constraints. Major gaps in stocks of nutrition and medical supplies are observed in nutrition sites, and several outreach services were suspended, aggravating the severity of diseases and increasing the risk of acute malnutrition and mortality.
The most affected people are poor households who do not own assets such as animals, people who have nearly exhausted their food stocks after the harvest season because of low agricultural production, communities living near stagnant swamplands where the spread of waterborne disease is heightened, and people displaced by recent and persistent conflict.
These vulnerable households require support aimed at reducing their food consumption deficits as well as reinforcing their resilience capacities. The most food insecure states, with more than 50 percent of their populations likely facing high levels of acute food insecurity IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between April and July 2025, include Unity (67 percent),
Upper Nile (66 percent), Jonglei (61 percent), Northern Bahr el Ghazal (60 percent), Central Equatoria (57 percent), Warrap (55 percent), and Lakes (54 percent). Additionally, 85 percent of people returning to South Sudan after fleeing the conflict in Sudan are likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) in this period.
The IPC projection update covered the 54 counties previously classified in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency), from a total of 79 in the country. For the remaining 25 counties, results from the previous analysis were retained. The analysis update portrays an increase of 46,000 people facing high levels of acute food insecurity in South Sudan compared to the last projection conducted in October 2024, which estimated 7.69 million people would be in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between April and July 2025. Compared to the previous analysis, two counties have experienced deterioration with some of their population falling into IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe) due to conflict, namely Ulang and Nasir. However, the food security situation has improved in some areas. For example, Uror in Jonglei State reported no population classified in IPC AFI Phase 5 (Catastrophe), which is an improvement compared to the previous analysis when 10,000 people were in Catastrophe.
The IPC analysis team carried out a risk of Famine (RoF) assessment in four areas of South Sudan—Nasir, Ulang, Pibor, and Fangak counties—based on Worst-Case Scenario (WCS) assumptions with reasonable chances of occurring, and on contributing factors. Following a thorough evaluation, only Nasir and Ulang were classified as facing a plausible risk of Famine. Pibor and Fangak were excluded from RoF classification due to the presence of mitigating factors or insufficient evidence indicating an imminent risk of Famine. Additionally, Malakal County and the returnee population were initially considered as eligible for conducting the risk of Famine analysis. However, due to minimal aggravating factors for food insecurity in Malakal and insufficient data on returnees, they were excluded from the RoF analysis.
Overall, acute malnutrition cases have increased by 10.5 percent, that translate to 218,000 children in need of treatment between July 2024 and June 2025. The overall malnutrition burden has increased from 2.1 million children under the age of five experiencing acute malnutrition to 2.3 million. As for the severity of the situation, out of the 80 counties analysed, 62 counties show a general deterioration of acute malnutrition. Of these, 11 counties are likely to deteriorate to a higher AMN phase; with three) counties (Luakpiny, Nassir and Ulang) moving from IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) to IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical); three counties (Gogrial East, Tonj North and Torit) moving from IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) to IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), and five counties (Mundri East, Mundri West, Tambura and Nagero) moving from IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert) to IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). A total of 42 counties deteriorated further within the same classification; for example one county (Baliet) shows a deterioration within IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical), while 37 counties are experiencing worse conditions within IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) and four counties within IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). Meanwhile, nine counties have retained their previous AMN classification from the previous IPC projection analysis.
Deterioration in acute malnutrition in this projection update has been attributed to various factors including the impact of renewed conflict on access to health and WASH services, higher disease burden of malaria, diarrhoea, and cholera, with minimal capacity to respond, and funding cuts to humanitarian assistance. Coupled with increased high levels of acute food insecurity, these factors aggravate acute malnutrition cases in South Sudan and increase the risk of mortality among children.
As the levels of severe acute malnutrition and food insecurity in the country remain high, urgent action and multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance is required to save lives, avert a further deterioration in acute malnutrition and mortality among children, and prevent the total collapse of livelihoods, health systems and sanitation services in the affected counties.