Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes spread amid funding shortfalls and assistance delivery constraints
• Humanitarian food assistance deliveries continue to reach many areas of high concern across South Sudan in an effort to mitigate widespread acute food insecurity, which is driven by prolonged conflict and recurrent flooding. However, assistance deliveries in July were lower than distribution plans suggested, reaching around 20 percent of the population in need of food assistance compared to the target of 40 percent of the population in need. Given funding shortfalls and constraints to assistance delivery, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are now expected to emerge in six more counties than previously anticipated between August and September. Despite the harvest, levels of acute food insecurity are expected to further deteriorate in most areas between October and January, during which time widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely.
• Despite the extension of the Transitional Government of National Unity through February 2025, armed clashes, revenge killings, banditries, and road ambushes remain key drivers of acute food insecurity by interfering with mainseason crop production activities, population movements related to livelihood activities, and market and trade flows. Populations of highest concern are affected by the escalation in conflict along the Upper Nile-Jonglei border, where an increasing number of armed attacks have caused large-scale displacement and disruptions to food access.
• While rainfall during the main rainy season has been below average in most areas, atypical flooding is still expected in the coming months based on forecasts for above-average rainfall through October amid already high river levels and highly saturated soils. A fourth consecutive year of flooding is expected to result in another year of livestock and crop losses.
• FEWS NET continues to assess that there is a credible, alternative scenario in which Famine (IPC Phase 5) could occur, given the high proportion of the population likely to face large food consumption gaps and their vulnerability to new shocks. Fangak and Canal/Pigi are among the areas of highest concern for this Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5). If flood severity exceeds that of 2021 or if conflict were to intensify further to unforeseen levels, thereby restricting household movement and humanitarian access, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) could occur. Even without the occurrence of Famine (IPC Phase 5), however, it is critical to emphasize that Emergency (IPC Phase 4) reflects an already elevated level of hungerrelated mortality. A significant scale-up of food assistance is needed urgently and throughout the projection period in South Sudan to save lives.