Attachments
Emergency will persist in many areas of South Sudan through the harvest
Key Messages
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South Sudan remains one of the most food insecure countries globally and in the East Africa region, with over 60 percent of the population expected to be acutely food insecure between June and September. With insufficient means of producing or purchasing food, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will be widespread at the peak of the lean season. Household stocks depleted earlier than usual in many areas, income-generating opportunities remain limited, and staple food prices are atypically high, exacerbated by disrupted trade flows and increased demand related to the conflict in Sudan and influx of refugees and returnees. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes – associated with large food consumption gaps and elevated levels of acute malnutrition and mortality – are assessed in 40 counties, mainly in Upper Nile, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes, Warrap,
Unity, and Jonglei. Amid this high level of need, WFP plans to provide food aid to 2.9 million people (23 percent of the population) per month through August. -
Levels of acute food insecurity will remain elevated, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in many areas through the harvest period, given anticipated conflict and the forecasts of belowaverage rainfall in the east where crop production is already typically limited and households may only harvest a few months of stocks. Given the long-term erosion of production and coping capacity due to conflict and floods, seasonal improvements in food availability and access will be limited as many households face physical and financial barriers to land and inputs. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to be widespread from October to January with only marginal improvement after the first season harvest in Greater Equatoria in June and the main harvest beginning in October.
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Fangak and Canal/Pigi of northern Jonglei and Panyikang and Fashoda of Upper Nile remain among the areas of highest concern during both the lean and harvest seasons after multiple flood years and the escalation of conflict in 2022 that eroded assets and led to the near-collapse of local livelihoods.
While the relative lull in conflict since early January has facilitated some improved access to food and income sources as well as delivery of assistance in northern Jonglei, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes with households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are expected to persist, particularly in parts of Fashoda and Panyikang where access to food and income is severely limited and the provision of food aid has been low. -
Other northern border regions are also of high concern, as the ongoing conflict in Sudan has led to the influx of over 130,000 people in urgent need of assistance and reduced market functionality. Rising needs and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected during the harvest in counties such as Renk in Upper Nile, Aweil North and East in Northern Bahr el Ghazel, amid increased competition over scarce resources and insecurity that limits access to food and income.
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While not the most likely outcome, FEWS NET assesses there remains a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in South Sudan, particularly in the Upper Nile-Jonglei border region. While recent trends and forecasts suggest the likelihood of escalating conflict or catastrophic flooding is declining, these areas have very high levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, and a resurgence of conflict and/or flooding still poses a risk of isolating households from already-scarce sources of food.