ReliefWeb

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persists as the lean season peaks

Key Messages

• Food security has significantly deteriorated in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State, a cereal deficit area where most households are market-dependent. Market supplies are severely limited, contributing to extremely high staple food prices. Since January 2016, over 77,000 people have migrated to Sudan, the majority from Aweil East and Aweil North due to food shortages. A rapid food security assessment found that a small number of households have exhausted their coping strategies, are experiencing an extreme lack of food, and are likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

• Poor households in parts of Unity, Upper Nile, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Western Bahr el Ghazal States are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and face an increased risk of high levels of acute malnutrition and elevated mortality. Significant food shortages exist and market functioning remains disrupted. Food availability and access have declined significantly below what is normal for a lean season.

• Recent conflict in Wau has disrupted livelihood activities and displaced over 60,000 people. Many displaced were forced to flee without their belongings and are likely facing extreme difficulty meeting their basic food needs. The conflict is also disrupting trade routes that pass through Wau, further reducing trade flows to Greater Bahr el Ghazal.

National Overview

Current Situation

In April 2016, the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) was formed, eight months after the peace agreement was signed in August 2015. Since its formation, conflict has subsided considerably in most of Greater Upper Nile (GUN). No major clash between the Government of South Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) has been reported in Jonglei, Upper Nile, or Unity States in May or June. The relative calm has improved humanitarian access and supported slight improvements in trade flows to the region. However, increased levels of conflict have since been reported in Western Equatoria State, where insecurity along major trade routes is limiting trade flows to Greater Bahr el Ghazal. Additionally, fighting has significantly increased in Wau of Western Bahr el Ghazal State. Clashes that began on June 24 have interrupted livelihood activities and displaced households. An estimated 27,000 people have been displaced within Wau town to a Catholic Church and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). An additional 35,000-50,000 people are believed to be displaced in the Greater Baggari area. The displaced were forced to flee without their belongings and likely lack adequate access to food or water. The conflict is also disrupting Wau market, impacting trade flows to Greater Bahr el Ghazal.

Since the conflict started in December 2013, about 1.61 million people have been internally displaced and over 721,000 have fled to neighboring countries. Relative improvements in security have encouraged some movement back to places of origin; however, food shortages and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have also prompted movement towards Protection of Civilian (PoC) sites within Unity State and to Sudan from Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Warrap States.

Macroeconomic conditions in South Sudan remain very poor. The South Sudanese Government relies predominantly on revenue from oil production, but the reduced extraction of oil and low global oil prices have cut oil earnings and, consequently, the availability of foreign currency. The country currently exports approximately 160,000 barrels a day, down from 350,000 pre-crisis. There has been a slight increase in oil revenue as the global oil price rose from 31 USD per barrel in early 2016 to 48.74 USD per barrel in late-June. However, total revenue from oil exports remains low, in part because South Sudan pays Sudan 24.50 USD per barrel in transit and financial agreement fees according to the terms of agreement between the two countries. In May, South Sudan and Sudan renewed their commitment to implement the Cooperation Agreement, previously signed in September 2012. This is a preliminary step towards improving trade and relations between the two countries, although no changes to the transit and financial agreement fees have been made.

As of June 14, the official exchange rate was 36.5 SSP/USD, whereas the rate on the unofficial market was 43.0 SSP/USD. This represents 91 percent depreciation of South Sudan’s currency on the official market and 83 percent depreciation on the unofficial market since the Government implemented a floating exchange rate policy in December 2015.