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KEY MESSAGES
Since February, airstrikes and violent clashes have displaced an estimated 80,000 people in Nasir, Ulang and Longochuk counties. Approximately 23,000 have fled into parts of Gambella region, Ethiopia. Many others wait in displacement sites along the Sobat River. Widespread fears of a further escalation, including reports that fighting might resume in Nasir, indicate mass displacement is set to continue.
The violence has deepened a severe public health crisis, which could spiral beyond control in the displacement sites.
Between September and March, the cholera fatality rate in Nasir (4.4%) exceeded the WHO target threshold (1%).
Very poor sanitation could increase infections over the coming months, according to health actors and local authorities in the region. Health facility data also reveal a spike in cases of diarrhoea, malaria and pneumonia, which partners expect will worsen as the rainy season drives even poorer sanitation and facilitates the spread of waterborne disease.
Mobile health units are working to stem the rising tide of infections. However, health actors say a growing caseload with acute needs is outstripping supplies. Partners servicing displacement sites in Nasir and Ulang could run out of essential medicines at the end of April. Further, one practitioner confirmed that 20 out of 21 nutrition sites in Ulang – where the IPC projected ‘critical’ rates of acute malnutrition between April and June – exhausted their supplementary and therapeutic food stocks in December. Airstrikes and a drawdown in funding also forced some health providers to downscale their operations between February and March. As a result, multiple populations in severe conditions are isolated from life-saving assistance.
The latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) analysis projected that Longochuk, Nasir and Ulang counties would experience area-level IPC AFI Phase-4 between April and July, 2025. Sustained humanitarian food assistance (HFA) is essential to offset more severe hunger, widespread malnutrition and excess mortality. At the time of writing, however,
Longonchuk, Nasir and Ulang are classified “no-go” areas for UN agencies, including the World Food Progamme.
Key informants assume access restrictions will continue over the near term. If HFA is significantly delayed between April and July, food insecurity will continue to worsen.